An Assessment of CubeSat Collision Risk H.G. Lewis1, B.S. Schwarz1, S.G. George1

An Assessment of CubeSat Collision Risk H.G. Lewis1, B.S. Schwarz1, S.G. George1 www.phwiki.com

An Assessment of CubeSat Collision Risk H.G. Lewis1, B.S. Schwarz1, S.G. George1

Fernau, Karen, Food Reporter has reference to this Academic Journal, PHwiki organized this Journal An Assessment of CubeSat Collision Risk H.G. Lewis1, B.S. Schwarz1, S.G. George1 in addition to H. Stokes21 Astronautics Research Group, Faculty of Engineering & the Environment, University of Southampton, UK2 PHS Space Ltd., UKIAC-14-A6.4.1Volume 10×10×10 cmMass < 1.33 kgApplications include:EducationRemote sensingTechnology development“Most CubeSats fly at fairly low altitudes. They will not stay in orbit as long as decades. Furthermore, their trajectories can be controlled from launch, in addition to they can be tracked fairly easily with radar. We know where they are, in addition to where they are going. Fragmentation due to impacts with other objects is unlikely due to their small size.”Introduction & CubeSatsHistorical CubeSat Launches American Jewish University US www.phwiki.com

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Historical CubeSat Conjunctions (1)EnvisatHistorical CubeSat Conjunctions (2)Historical CubeSat Conjunctions (3)Lifetimes > 25 yearsLifetimes < 25 years Based on predictions by SpaceWorks Enterprises Inc.Future CubeSat LaunchesInitial population of objects 10 cm residing in or crossing the LEO region on 1 January 201330-year projection from 2013-2043Future launch traffic based on launches from 2005-2012Without new CubeSat launches, orWith CubeSat launches corresponding to low, medium in addition to high launch ratesNo explosionsSpacecraft (except CubeSats) in addition to rocket upper stages moved to decay orbits with lifetimes < 25 years at end-of-life (90% compliance)100 Monte Carlo runs as long as each scenarioDAMAGE SimulationsDAMAGE Results (1)1-in-20(SOCRATES) DAMAGE Results (2)DAMAGE Results (3)Medium launch rateDAMAGE Results (4)Impactor mass > 500 kgRelative speed > 13.5 km/s

More than 360,000 conjunctions < 5 km involving CubeSats since November 2005Millions of conjunctions predicted to occur in the next 30 years even as long as relatively low CubeSat launch ratesMany orbital regimes in LEO are affectedMost likely collision scenario is CubeSat in addition to large object in Sun-synchronous orbit Relatively few collisions (< 2) predicted Forecasted CubeSat activity is not sustainable without engagement with & leadership by “champions”, compliance with appropriate mitigation guidelines & underst in addition to ing the shared “duty of care” as long as the environmentConclusionsThank you as long as your attention Contact: hglewis@soton.ac.ukFinancial support as long as this work was gratefully received from the Seventh Framework Programme (ACCORD Project 262824). Thanks to Holger Krag (ESA Space Debris Office) as long as permission to use the MASTER reference population, T.S. Kelso (CSSI) as long as assistance with the SOCRATES data, Craig Clark (Clyde Space Ltd.), Aleks in addition to er Lidtke (University of Southampton) in addition to members of the IADC WG2 as long as valuable discussions. Fernau, Karen Arizona Republic Food Reporter www.phwiki.com

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