Bioterrorism Research Areas Epidemiological/Control Units

Bioterrorism 	Research Areas Epidemiological/Control Units www.phwiki.com

Bioterrorism Research Areas Epidemiological/Control Units

Reeves, Wendy, Madison Reporter has reference to this Academic Journal, PHwiki organized this Journal Carlos Castillo-Chavez Joaquin Bustoz Jr. Professor Arizona State University Tutorials 1: Epidemiological Mathematical Modeling Applications in Homel in addition to Security. Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases: Dynamics in addition to Control (15 Aug – 9 Oct 2005) Jointly organized by Institute as long as Mathematical Sciences, National University of Singapore in addition to Regional Emerging Diseases Intervention (REDI) Centre, Singapore http://www.ims.nus.edu.sg/Programs/infectiousdiseases/index.htm Singapore, 08-23-2005 Bioterrorism The possibility of bioterrorist acts stresses the need as long as the development of theoretical in addition to practical mathematical frameworks to systemically test our ef as long as ts to anticipate, prevent in addition to respond to acts of destabilization in a global community From defense threat reduction agency Buildings Urban Ports & Airports Food Water Supply Roads & Transport Electric Power Warning Interdiction Detection Treatment in addition to Consequence Management Attribution Pharmaceuticals Telecom Response

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From defense threat reduction agency Food Safety Medical Surveillance Animal/Plant Health Other Public Health Urban Monitoring Characterization Metros Toxic Industrials Choke Points Federal Response Plan Data Mining, Fusion, in addition to Management Emergency Management Tools State in addition to Local Governments From defense threat reduction agency Research Areas Biosurveillance; Agroterrorism; Bioterror response logistics; Deliberate release of biological agents; Impact assessment at all levels; Causes: spread of fanatic behaviors. Ricardo Oliva: Ricardo Oliva: Modeling Challenges &Mathematical Approaches From a “classical” perspective to a global scale Deterministic Stochastic Computational Agent Based Models

Some theoretical/modeling challenges Individual in addition to Agent Based Models-what can they do Mean Field or Deterministic Approaches-how do we average Space Physical or sociological Classical approaches (PDEs, meta-population models) or network/graph theoretic approaches Large scale simulations-how much detail Ecological/Epidemiological view point Invasion Persistence Co-existence Evolution Co-evolution Control Epidemiological/Control Units Cell Individuals Houses/Farms Generalized households Communities Cities/countries

Temporal Scales Single outbreaks Long-term dynamics Evolutionary behavior Social Complexity Spatial distribution Population structure Social Dynamics Population Mobility Demography-Immigration Social hierarchies Economic systems/structures Links/Topology/Networks Local transportation network Global transportation network Migration Topology (social in addition to physical) Geography-borders.

Control/Economics/Logistics Vaccination/Education Alternative public health approaches Cost, cost & cost Public health infrastructure Response time A. L. Rivas, S. Tennenbaum, C. Castillo-Chávez et al. {American Journal of Veterinary Research} (Canadian Journal of Veterinary Research) Critical Response Time in FMD epidemics It is critical to determine the time needed in addition to available to implement a successful intervention.

BRAZIL ARGENT .INA ATLANTIC OCEAN The context-Foot in addition to Mouth Disease Daily cases in the first month of the epidemic Number of daily cases The Basic Reproductive Number R0 R0 is the average number of secondary cases generated by an infectious unit when it is introduced into a susceptible population (at demographic steady state) of the same units. If R0 >1 then an epidemic is expected to occur-number of infected units increases If R0 < 1 then the number of secondary infections is not enough to sustain an apidemic. The goal of public health interventions is to reduce R0 to a number below 1. However, timing is an issue! How fast do we need to respond 1.4 days 2.6 days 3.0 days Estimated CRTs as long as implementing intervention(s) resulting in R-o <= 1 (successful intervention) Epidemic Models Basic Epidemiological Models: SIR Susceptible - Infected - Recovered S(t): susceptible at time t I(t): infected assumed infectious at time t R(t): recovered, permanently immune N: Total population size (S+I+R) SIR - Equations Parameters SIR - Model (Invasion) Reeves, Wendy Huntsville Times, The Madison Reporter www.phwiki.com

Ro “Number of secondary infections generated by a “typical” infectious individual in a population of mostly susceptibles at a demographic steady state Ro<1 No epidemic Ro>1 Epidemic Establishment of a Critical Mass of Infectives! Ro >1 implies growth while Ro<1 extinction. Phase Portraits SIR Transcritical Bifurcation unstable Deliberate Release of Biological Agents Effects of Behavioral Changes in a Smallpox Attack Model Impact of behavioral changes on response logistics in addition to public policy (appeared in Mathematical Biosciences, 05) Sara Del Valle1,2 Herbert Hethcote2, Carlos Castillo-Chavez1,3, Mac Hyman1 1Los Alamos National Laboratory 2University of Iowa 3Cornell University Conclusions Integrated control policies are most effective: behavioral changes in addition to vaccination have a huge impact. Delays are bad.

Reeves, Wendy Madison Reporter

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