Introduction The Winter Olympic Challenge Products During Olympics Background of INTW
Miller, Ryan, Executive Editor has reference to this Academic Journal, PHwiki organized this Journal Challenges of Nowcasting by George A. Isaac1, Monika Bailey1, Faisal Boudala1, Stewart Cober1, Robert Craw as long as d1, Ivan Heckman1, Laura Huang1, Paul Joe1, Jocelyn Mailhot2, Jason Milbr in addition to t2, in addition to Janti Reid1 1Cloud Physics in addition to Severe Weather Research Section, Environment Canada 2Numerical Weather Prediction Research Section, Environment Canada Workshop on Use of NWP as long as Nowcasting Boulder, Colorado, 24-26 October 2011 Introduction Results from Canadian Airport Nowcasting (CAN-Now) in addition to Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather as long as Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) Funding from Environment Canada, NAV CANADA, SAR-NIF, Transport Canada Canadian Airport Nowcasting (CAN-Now) To improve short term as long as ecasts (0-6 hour) or Nowcasts of airport severe weather. Develop a as long as ecast system which will include routinely gathered in as long as mation (radar, satellite, surface based data, pilot reports), numerical weather prediction model outputs, in addition to a limited suite of specialized sensors placed at the airport. Forecast/Nowcast products are issued with 1-15 min resolution as long as most variables. Test this system, in addition to its associated in as long as mation delivery system, within an operational airport environment (e.g. Toronto in addition to Vancouver International Airports ). Isaac et al., 2011: The Canadian Airport Nowcasting System (CAN-Now, Submitted to Meteorological Applications Isaac et al., 2011: Decision Making Regarding Aircraft De-Icing in addition to In-Flight Icing Using the Canadian Airport Nowcasting System (CAN-Now), SAE 2011 International Conference on Aircraft in addition to Engine Icing in addition to Ground Deicing, 13-17 June 2011, Chicago, Illinois, USA
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Main equipment at Pearson at the old Test in addition to Evaluation site near the existing Met compound CAN-Now Situation Chart
SNOW-V10 Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather Vancouver 2010 To improve our underst in addition to ing in addition to ability to as long as ecast/nowcast low cloud, in addition to visibility. To improve our underst in addition to ing in addition to ability to as long as ecast precipitation amount in addition to type. To improve as long as ecasts of wind speed, gusts in addition to direction. To develop better as long as ecast system production systems. Assess in addition to evaluate value to end users. To increase the capacity of WMO member states. Olympics Societal Benefits The Winter Olympic Challenge Steep topography, highly variable weather elements in space in addition to time 5 km Village Creekside
Canadian Models Used in SNOW-V10 Other Countries Models Used in SNOW-V10
Google Map of Outdoor Venues as long as Sochi 2014 Olympics. A box 7 km in size is drawn on map. The tops of the mountains are approximately 2200m in addition to the valley 600 m. The area is about 35 km inl in addition to from Black Sea. Products During Olympics Each group produced a Table showing 24 hour as long as ecast of significant variables as long as main venue sites (hourly intervals in addition to 10 to 15 min intervals in first two hours). Similar to what as long as ecasters produce A Research Support Desk was run during Olympics in addition to Paralympics (virtual in addition to on-site) providing real time support to as long as ecasters. A SNOW-V10 Web site was created with many of the products (time series as long as sites, remote sensing products, area displays, soundings (gondola in addition to others), in addition to a very successful Blog.
Equipment on Whistler mountain provided good data as long as as long as ecasters in addition to help in underst in addition to ing weather processes Adaptive Blending of Observations in addition to Models (ABOM) ABOM reduces to: Observation persistence when r = s = 0, w = 1 Pure observation trend when r = 0, s = 1, w = 0 Model + obs trend + persistence as long as all other r, s in addition to w Change predicted by model Forecast at lead time p Change predicted by obs trend Coefficients s in addition to r are proportional to the per as long as mance over recent history, relative to obs persistence (w) in addition to to Local tuning parameters (not yet optimized at all SNOWV10 sites) Updated using new obs data every 15 minutes Bailey ME, Isaac GA, Driedger N, Reid J. 2009. Comparison of nowcasting methods in the context of high-impact weather events as long as the Canadian Airport Nowcasting Project. International Symposium on Nowcasting in addition to Very Short Range Forecasting, Whistler, British Columbia, 30 August – 4 September 2009.
Temperature Mean Absolute Error: Averaged by Nowcast Lead Time to 6 Hours Nowcast – Model crossover lead-time Improvement over persistence Background of INTW INTW refers to integrated weighted model LAM 1k, LAM 2.5k, REG 15k in addition to RUC (CAN-Now) were selected to generate INTW Major steps of INTW generation Data pre-checking – defining the available NWP models in addition to observations Extracting the available data as long as specific variable in addition to location Calculating statistics from NWP model data, e.g. MAE, RMSE Deriving weights from model variables based on model per as long as mance Defining in addition to per as long as ming dynamic in addition to variational bias correction Generating Integrated Model as long as ecasts (INTW) Huang, L.X., G.A. Isaac in addition to G. Sheng, 2011: Integrating NWP Forecasts in addition to Observation Data to Improve Nowcasting Accuracy, Submitted to Weather in addition to Forecasting Aerials jump Spectator gr in addition to st in addition to Preparation of field-of-play 2 hours be as long as e training
Freestyle Skiing Ladies Aerials Final February 24, 2010 Notes by Mindy Brugman as posted on SNOW-V10 Blog The event .Last night at the Cypress aerial site it began with drizzle in addition to was quite foggy We walked to the bright lights of the venue. There was no precipitation at the venue the entire competition. The competition started at 1930 PST. The first pictures (not shown here) are taken at the start of the competition in addition to you can see that the fog was much worse at the start. I stopped taking pictures since I could not see anything. Then it began to clear just near the end of the competiton in addition to I clicked a few pictures. You can detect a flying bug above the lights. Thats really the gold medal winner, Lydia Lassila, of Australia! Based on the event last night I suspect ladies aerials may qualify as a new paralympic sport as long as the visually impaired. INTW Forecasts of Visibility at VOG Visibility LAM 1K including 24 hours be as long as e ladies aerials
Ceiling LAM 2.5K including 24 hours be as long as e ladies aerials Total precip rate REG 15K including 24 hours be as long as e ladies aerials NWP Model with Minimum MAE in CAN-Now as long as Winter Dec 1/09 Mar 31/10 in addition to Summer June 1/10 to Aug 31/10 Periods Based on First 6 Hours of Forecast
Winter period Dec. 1, 2009 to Mar. 31, 2010 Summer period – June 1 to August 31, 2010 Winter Summer Time (h) as long as Model to Beat Persistence 6h RUC Used Huang, L.X., G.A. Isaac in addition to G. Sheng, 2011: Integrating NWP Forecasts in addition to Observation Data to Improve Nowcasting Accuracy, Submitted to Weather in addition to Forecasting Observation Model grid match RUC temperature at CYVR July 2010 Compared data from 3 model points Consider season when selecting the best point CAN-Now: usually nearest grid point (with no water mask) J. Reid 2010
Summary RH predictions are poor, barely beating climatology. (Impacts visibility as long as ecasts) Visibility as long as ecasts are poor from statistical point of view. (also require snow in addition to rain rates) Cloud base as long as ecasts, although showing some skill, could be improved with better model resolution in boundary layer. Wind direction either poorly as long as ecast or measured. There are many difficulties in measuring parameters, especially precipitation amount in addition to type. Overall statistical scores do not show complete story. Need emphasis on high impact events. Selection of model point to best represent site is a critical process. Summary (continued) Weather changes rapidly, especially in complex terrain, in addition to it is necessary to get good measurements at time resolutions of at least 1 -15 min. CAN-Now in addition to SNOW-V10 attempted to get measurements at 1 min resolution where possible. Because of the rapidly changing nature of the weather, weather as long as ecasts also must be given at high time resolution. Verification of mesoscale as long as ecasts, in addition to nowcasts, must be done with appropriate data (time in addition to space). Data collected on hourly basis are not sufficient. Nowcast schemes which blend NWP models in addition to observations at a site, outper as long as m individual NWP models in addition to persistence after 1-2 hours. Questions
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