Forecasting the Dem in addition to Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it 250 wheels

Forecasting the Dem in addition to Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it 250 wheels www.phwiki.com

Forecasting the Dem in addition to Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it 250 wheels

Neu, Pamela, Morning Host has reference to this Academic Journal, PHwiki organized this Journal Forecasting the Dem in addition to Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it George Santayana (1863-1952) a Spanish philosopher, essayist, poet in addition to novelist Operations managers need as long as ecasting as long as their Design tasks as well as their Operational tasks. We will learn Why do we need as long as ecasting What is as long as ecasting Qualitative (judgmental) as long as ecasting. Quantitative as long as ecasting. Time series analysis Naïve method Moving average Exponential smoothing Regression analysis How to measure as long as ecasting errors Goals in addition to Aims Uses of Forecast in Planning, Scheduling, in addition to Decision Making

Institute of Germanic Studies, University of London GB www.phwiki.com

This Particular University is Related to this Particular Journal

Accurate Close to reality Close to actual data Reliable Accuracy over time Consistency in as long as ecasts Timely To have enough time to make the required decisions based on as long as ecasts Elements of a good as long as ecast Forecasts rarely perfect because of r in addition to omness Forecast should be accompanied by a measure of as long as ecast error Forecasts are more accurate as long as groups of items vs. individual items Forecast accuracy decreases as time horizon increases I see that you will get an A this semester. Common features of as long as ecasts Judgmental – uses subjective inputs. Qualitative Time series – uses historical data to develop a function to as long as ecast dem in addition to of our products over time. A relationship between dem in addition to in addition to time. Regression – Create a relationship between dem in addition to of our products in addition to value of one or more variables Types of Forecasts

Executive opinions Sales as long as ce composite Consumer surveys Outside opinion Delphi technique Judgmental as long as ecasts A questionnaire is send to individuals who have knowledge in addition to ability in the area Responses are kept anonymous A new questionnaire is developed based on the in as long as mation extracted from the previous questionnaire. The process starts over The process stops when they reach an consensus as long as ecast Delphi technique Delphi technique One reason as long as using the Delphi method in as long as ecasting is to avoid premature consensus (b in addition to wagon effect)

Find a relationship between dem in addition to in addition to time Dem in addition to Time Time series analysis as long as ecast variations Irregular variations – caused by unusual circumstances R in addition to om variations – caused by chance Naïve as long as ecasts Moving Averages Exponential Smoothing Techniques as long as time series as long as ecasting

We sold 250 wheels last week . Now, next week we should sell. At : Actual dem in addition to in period t F(t+1) : Forecast of dem in addition to as long as period t+1 F(t+1) = At Naive as long as ecasts 250 wheels The naive as long as ecast can also serve as an accuracy st in addition to ard as long as other techniques Moving Average Three period moving average in period say 7 is the average of MAt10 = (At+ At-1+ At-2 +At-3+ .+ At-9)/10 MA73 = (A7+ A6+ A5)/3 Three period moving average in period t is the average of MAt3 = (At+ At-1+ At-2)/3 Ten period moving average in period t is the average of Forecast Using Moving Average Forecast as long as period t+1 is equal to moving average as long as period t Ft+1 =MAtn n period moving average in period t is the average of MAtn = (At+ At-1+ At-2 +At-3+ .+ At-n+1)/n Ft+1 =MAtn = (At+ At-1+ At-2 +At-3+ .+ At-n+1)/n

Actual data; taking into account Which one take into account more elements of the actual data, a 4-period moving average or a 7-period moving average MAt4 = (At+ At-1 + At-2 + At-3)/4 MAt7 = (At+ At-1+ At-2 +At-3+ .+ At-6)/7 Moving Average, t to t+1 Suppose we are in period 20, in addition to we have already computed 4-period in addition to 7-period moving averages. The actual dem in addition to as long as period 21 is 800 unit. From now on, which one needs to write more data in a file or store more data on computer, 4-periods or 7-period MA MA420 = (A20+A19+A18+A17)/4 MA421 = (A21+A20+A19+A18)/4 4 period moving average at period 20, in addition to 21 MA421 = (800+658+864+1110)/4=858 MA420 = (658+864+1110+634)/4 = 816.5 The Actual Dem in addition to as long as period 21 is 800 The Actual Dem in addition to as long as periods 17-20 are

4 period moving average at period 20, in addition to 21 MA421 = (800+658+864+1110)/4=858 MA420 = (658+864+1110+634)/4 = 816.5 MA421 = MA420 +(A21- A17)/4 MA421 = 816.5 +(800- 634) /4=858 MA420 = (658+864+1110) /4 +634/4 = 816.5 MA421 = 800/4 + (658+864+1110)/4 = 858 7 period moving average at period 20, in addition to 21 Actual Dem in addition to as long as period 21 is 800 MA721 = (800+658+864+1110+634+855+738)/7=808.43 MA720 = (658+864+1110+634+855+738+910)/7 = 824.14 7 period moving average at period 20, in addition to 21 MA721 = MA720 +(A21- A14)/7 MA721 = 824. 14 +(800- 910)/7=808.43 MA721 = (800)/7 + (658+864+1110+634+855+738)/7 = 808.43 MA720 = (658+864+1110+634+855+738 )/7 + (910)/7 = 824.14 MA721 = (800+658+864+1110+634+855+738)/7=808.43 MA720 = (658+864+1110+634+855+738+910)/7 = 824.14

Which One MA421 = MA420 +(A21- A17)/4 MA421 = 816.5 +(800- 634) /4=858 MA721 = MA720 +(A21- A14)/7 MA721 = 824. 14 +(800- 910) /7=808.43 Same Computations Actual data; storing Which one needs to write more data in a file or store more data in Computer, 4 periods or 7 period MA MAt = MAt-1 +(At – At-n)/n MAt4 = MA4t-1 +(At – At-4 )/4 MAt7 = MA7t-1 +(At – At-7)/7 MAt = (At+ At-1+ + At-n+2 + At-n+1)/n MAt-1 = ( At-1 + At-2 At-n+1 + At-n)/n Moving average The relationship between MAt in addition to MAt-1 can be easily computed as long as any moving average

Neu, Pamela WDYF-FM Morning Host www.phwiki.com

MAt = (At+ At-1+ + At-n+2 + At-n+1)/n MA(t+1) = MAt + (At+1 – At-n)/n MAt-1 = ( At-1 + At-2 At-n+1 + At-n)/n Moving average Moving average is then used to as long as ecast as long as the next period. In moving average as long as ecasting F(t+1) = MAt F22= MA21 Comparison If we are in period 20, in addition to 4-period moving average in period 20 is Then our as long as ecast as long as period 21 is If the actual dem in addition to in period 21 is 800, in addition to the actual dem in addition to in period 17 was 634 F22 = MA21 MA420 = 816.5. F21 = MA420 = 816.5 Our as long as ecast as long as period 22 is F22 = MA21 = 858 MA22 = 816.5+(800-634)/4 = 858. 4 in addition to 7 period moving average Which one create a more smooth as long as ecasting curve A 4 period or a 7 period moving average. Increase the number of periods; increase the smoothness of a as long as ecast Decrease the number of periods; increase the responsiveness of a as long as ecast

Micro $oft Stock Exponential smoothing Exponential smoothing

Assignment 2: Problem 2 (a) Exponential smoothing is being used to as long as ecast dem in addition to . The previous as long as ecast of 66 turned out to be 5 units larger than actual dem in addition to . The next as long as ecast is 65. Compute (b) The 5-period moving average in month 6 was 150 units. Actual dem in addition to in month 7 is 180 units. What is 6 period moving average in month 7

Neu, Pamela Morning Host

Neu, Pamela is from United States and they belong to WDYF-FM and they are from  Montgomery, United States got related to this Particular Journal. and Neu, Pamela deal with the subjects like Local News; National News; Religious/Gospel

Journal Ratings by Institute of Germanic Studies, University of London

This Particular Journal got reviewed and rated by Institute of Germanic Studies, University of London and short form of this particular Institution is GB and gave this Journal an Excellent Rating.