Hubbert’s Peak, The Coal Question, in addition to Climate Change David Rutledge, Caltech Characterizing Uncertainty King Hubbert US Crude-Oil Production

Hubbert’s Peak, The Coal Question, in addition to Climate Change David Rutledge, Caltech Characterizing Uncertainty King Hubbert US Crude-Oil Production

Hubbert’s Peak, The Coal Question, in addition to Climate Change David Rutledge, Caltech Characterizing Uncertainty King Hubbert US Crude-Oil Production

Kaplow, Josh, Host has reference to this Academic Journal, PHwiki organized this Journal Hubbert’s Peak, The Coal Question, in addition to Climate ChangeDavid Rutledge, Caltech2The UN Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)Released 4th Assessment Report in 2007For climate, the IPCC makes subjective estimates of the temperature sensitivity to a doubling of the CO2 level2/3 chance that the sensitivity is between 2.0 in addition to 4.5°C9/10 chance that the sensitivity is above 1.5°CFor oil, gas, in addition to coal production, the IPCC works with scenarios — “ 40 SRES [Special Report on Emissions Scenarios] scenarios together encompass the current range of uncertainties ” 3Oil Production in the IPCC ScenariosGb = billions of barrels, historical production from the BP Statistical ReviewRange as long as production from 2010 to 2100 is 1,446Gb to 8,278Gb — still growing in 13 scenarios in 2100

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4Goal is to Reduce these Uncertainties in addition to to Replace Subjective Estimates in addition to Scenarios with StatisticsOil, gas, in addition to coalUS oil — Hubbert’s peak British coal — The Coal QuestionWorld coalWorld oil in addition to gasClimate changeCO2 concentrationsTemperatureCharacterizing UncertaintyResiduals are the differences between data in addition to models The “best” model is used as long as projectionsUncertainty refers to the inconsistency in a group of projectionsA range giving the upper in addition to lower values is one measure of uncertainty — a one-sided example would be civil engineers who design as long as a 100-year floodWhen residuals can be decorrelated, we can create bootstrap replications, which are effectively alternative histories with the same statistical properties as the actual historyReplications allow us to calculate confidence intervals — statements of the as long as m “The 90% confidence interval is 1.9°C to 2.4°C” means that there is a 90% chance that the interval includes the actual temperatureLimitations in confidence intervals (uncertainty interval might be a better term) — they depend on the as long as m of the models, some uncertainties are left out, in addition to the models can break down56King HubbertGeophysicist at the Shell lab in Houston, TexasIn 1956, he wrote a paper suggesting the possibility of a peak in US oil production in 1970

US Crude-Oil ProductionGb = billions of barrels78Cumulative Production as long as US Crude OilTop of the scale as long as the normal gives a projection as long as the long-term production — total production, past in addition to future9Probit Trans as long as m as long as US Crude OilCumulative production is linearized by the probit trans as long as m (inverse of the st in addition to ard cumulative normal)The plot is as long as probit(q/Q), where q is cumulative production, in addition to Q is the proposed long-term productionMaximize r2 (correlation coefficient squared) — gives 0.99990A one-parameter fit, 1 second in Excel

Residuals as long as US Crude OilResiduals are expressed in the equivalent months of production — positive residuals show we are ahead of schedule, negative residuals show we are behind scheduleMaximum residual from 1901 on is 11 months — 1 month in 200910Historical Long-Term FitsRange from 218Gb to 237Gb since 1948 (8%)Large circles are government estimates, small circles are non-governmentGovernment median is 433Gb, non-government median is 230GbUSGS = US Geological Survey, MMS = Mineral Management Service1112Kenneth Deffeyes on the USGS Assessments“When USGS workers tried to estimate resources, they acted, well, like bureaucrats. Whenever a judgment call was made about choosing a statistical method, the USGS almost invariably tended to pick the one that gave the higher estimate.” Kenneth Deffeyes Professor of Geology, emeritus, Princeton UniversityDeffeyes’ Law of Bureaucratic Resource Estimates

13British CoalPhoto by John Cornwell14The Coal Question (1865) Stanley Jevons15Mt = millions of metric tonsProduction is now 16 times less than the peak — the last time the production was this low, Napoleon was aliveIn 1913, Britain exported 31% of its production, now it imports 74% of the coal it burnsUK Coal Production

Cumulative Production in addition to Historical FitsEstimates as long as long-term production have varied in a 11% range since 1900Fit uses a different s-curve, the logistic function, that gives a better fit than the normal Linearized through the logit trans as long as m r2 = 0.999616Residuals as long as UK CoalResiduals become larger with timeSlope changes appear to be associated with specific events17Historical Long-term Fits Compared with ReservesReserve numbers are available be as long as e long-term fitsProduced 18% of the 1871 Royal Commission reserves + cumulativeCriteria chosen were too optimistic 1-ft seams, 4,000-ft depthCollapse in reserves in 1968 — the five collieries left with producing longwall faces (down from 803 faces in 1972) were all producing by 196818

19American CoalPhotograph by Christian Abraham used with permissionPennsylvania Anthracite ProductionBurns without smoke — used as long as home heatingProduction is now 59 times less than the peak20Historical Long-Term Fits as long as Pennsylvania AnthraciteProduced 42% of 1921 reserves + cumulative21

Western US Coal ProductionEarly production cycle peaked in 1918 — extremely limited by lack of railroad capacity to customersNew start after the 1970 Clean-Air Act Extension, which encouraged the use of low-sulfur coal, in addition to the 1980 Staggers Rail Act, which deregulated the railroads22Coal West of the MississippiLong-term production fit is 45Gt (28% of reserves + cumulative)23Residuals as long as Western CoalFor the current fit, r2 is 0.99998524

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Long-term Fits Compared with Reserves as long as US Coal Marius Campbell of the USGS did the first reserves in 1913Paul Averitt was responsible as long as the reserves from 1948-1975. He responded to criticism from mining engineers by tightening reserves criteria — seams at least 28 inches thick, up to 1,000 feet deep, within 3/4 mile from a measurement, 50% recoveryNow 13 times lower than in 191325African CoalSASOL = South African Synthetic Oil companyCoal production increased dramatically during the boycott period26Probit Trans as long as m as long as Africa Projection as long as the ultimate is 18Gt (32% of reserves + cumulative)27

Residuals as long as Africa28Residuals are largest at the boundary between the two trendsChinese Coal44% of world’s production in 2009Serious problems with the reliability of the production data29Cumulative Production versus Historical FitsFor the current fit, r2 is 0.99951Long-term production fit is 139Gt (90% of reserves + cumulative)30

64Thank YouS in addition to ro Schmidt at the BGR (the German Resources Agency)Granger Morgan, Melissa Chan, Ed Rubin in addition to Jay Apt at Carnegie-MellonCharlie Kennel at the University of Cali as long as nia at San DiegoKevin Bowman in addition to Dimitri Antsos at the Jet Propulsion LaboratoryLee Freese in addition to John Rutledge at Freese in addition to Nichols, Inc. in Fort Worth, TexasKyle Saunders, Euan Mearns, in addition to Dave Summers at The Oil DrumAndrew Ferguson at the Optimum Population TrustTom Crowley at the University of EdinburghTom Wigley at the National Center as long as Atmospheric Research as long as MAGICCAlex Dessler, Andy Dessler, in addition to Jerry North at Texas A&MSteve Mohr at the University of Newcastle, New South WalesSteven Schwartz in addition to Ernie Lewis at Brookhaven National LaboratoryJim Murray at the University of WashingtonMany Caltech colleagues, but particularly Bill Bridges, Paul Dimotakis, David Goodstein, Nadia Lapusta, John Ledyard, Carver Mead, Tapio Schneider, John Seinfeld, in addition to Tom TombrelloSpecial thanks to S in addition to y Garstang in addition to Shady Peyvan in the Caltech Library, Tony Diaz in the Caltech Geology Library, in addition to Kent Potter in addition to Dale Yee in the Caltech Engineering Division as long as their perseverance in addition to ingenuity in locating historical coal production in addition to reserves recordsDavid Rutledge is the Tomiyasu Professor of Electrical Engineering at Caltech, in addition to a as long as mer Chair of the Division of Engineering in addition to Applied Science there. He is the author of the textbook Electronics of Radio, published by Cambridge University Press. He is a Fellow of the IEEE, a winner of the IEEE Microwave Prize, in addition to a winner of the Teaching Award of the Associated Students at Caltech. He served as the editor as long as the Transactions on Microwave Theory in addition to Techniques, in addition to is a founder of the Wavestream Corporation, the leading manufacturer of high-power millimeter-wave transmitters as long as satellite uplinks.Copyright © 2007, revised 2008, 2009, in addition to 2010 by David RutledgeThe site has links to the current version of these slides, an Excel workbook with calculations as long as the graphs, in addition to video from public lectures. A book is in preparation.Permission is given to copy this work, provided attribution is given, in addition to provided that the link is included.Email contact: Dave.Rutledge@caltech.edu65

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