MGS3100 Chapter 13 Forecasting Forecasting Models
Malach, Matthew, Executive Producer has reference to this Academic Journal, PHwiki organized this Journal Slides 13a: Introduction; Qualitative Models MGS3100 Chapter 13 Forecasting What is a Forecast A guess about what is going to happen in the future An integral part of almost all business enterprises Logical in addition to rational, but still a guess! Objective is to minimize error (as you will always be wrong!) Could be a complicated or simple process What is a Forecast (contd) Good as long as ecasts can lead to Reduced inventory costs Lower overall personnel costs Increased customer satisfaction The as long as ecasting process can be based on: Educated guess Expert opinions Past history
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Introduction to Forecasting: Examples Manufacturing firms as long as ecast dem in addition to as long as their product, to schedule manpower in addition to raw material allocation Service organizations as long as ecast customer arrival patterns to maintain adequate customer service Security analysts as long as ecast revenues, profits, in addition to debt ratios, to make investment recommendations Firms consider economic as long as ecasts of indicators (housing starts, changes in gross national profit) be as long as e deciding on capital investments. Model Differences Qualitative opinion-based; incorporates judgmental in addition to subjective factors into as long as ecast Quantitative number-based; most frequently used Time-Series attempts to predict the future by using historical data over time Causal incorporates factors that may influence the quantity being as long as ecasted into the model Forecasting Models
Qualitative Models: Using Expert Judgment Many important as long as ecasts are not based on as long as mal models. For example, during the high-interest-rate period of 1980 in addition to 1981, the most influential as long as ecasters of interest rates were Henry Kaufman of Salomon Brothers in addition to Albert Wojnilower of First Boston. These gentlemen combined relevant factors such as the money supply in addition to unemployment, as well as results from quantitative models, in their own intuitive way to produce as long as ecasts that had widespread credibility in addition to impact on the financial community. If you needed a long-term as long as ecast as long as the personal computer market, what approach would you take The Delphi Method confronts the problem of obtaining a combined as long as ecast from a group of experts. The consensus panel approach is to bring the experts together in a room in addition to let them discuss an event until a consensus emerges. However, due to group dynamics, one person with a strong personality can have an enormous effect on the as long as ecast. The Delphi Method was developed by the R in addition to Corporation to retain the strength of a joint as long as ecast, while removing the effects of group dynamics. The Delphi Method The Delphi Method (contd) Iterative group process allows experts to make as long as ecasts without meeting face-to-face Participants are typically 5-10 experts who make the as long as ecast Staff personnel assist by preparing, distributing, collecting, in addition to summarizing a series of questionnaires in addition to survey results After three or four passes through this process, a consensus as long as ecast typically emerges.
Grassroots Forecasting The Grassroots technique is based on the concept of asking those who are close to the eventual consumer, such as salespeople, about what they are going to sell next period, in addition to added the as long as ecasts to predict total dem in addition to . Requires an experienced stable work as long as ce that knows the customer base. Not good at retail! Can be expensive. Takes sales people away from sales ef as long as t. Results can be biased. In more sophisticated systems, as long as ecasts may be adjusted on the basis of the historical correlation between the salespersons as long as ecasts in addition to the actual sales. Market research is a large in addition to important topic which includes a variety of techniques, from consumer panels through consumer surveys in addition to on to test marketing. The goal of market research is to make predictions about the size/structure of the market as long as specific goods in addition to /or services. These predictions ( as long as ecasts) are usually based on small samples in addition to are qualitative in the sense that the original data typically consist of subjective evaluations of consumers. Market research is an important activity in most consumer product firms. It also plays an increasingly important role in the political in addition to electoral process. Consulting Customers (Market Research) Jury of Executive Opinion Opinions of a small group of high level managers Often in combination with statistical models Result is a group estimate
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