Ocean Science: The 20th Century Ocean Science: 21st Century Research Frontiers Now AOSN II AOSN II Linked, Coupled Models

Ocean Science: The 20th Century Ocean Science: 21st Century Research Frontiers Now AOSN II AOSN II Linked, Coupled Models www.phwiki.com

Ocean Science: The 20th Century Ocean Science: 21st Century Research Frontiers Now AOSN II AOSN II Linked, Coupled Models

Jordan, Erin, Meteorologist has reference to this Academic Journal, PHwiki organized this Journal FRONTIERS OF OCEAN RESEARCH FOR THE 21ST CENTURY: INTERDISCIPLINARY MULTISCALE GLOBAL COASTAL OCEAN Allan R. Robinson Harvard University Ocean Science: The 20th Century Modern Ocean Science defined as a Scientific Discipline Progress in Subdisciplines: Physical, Biological, Chemical, Geological Oceanography etc. Interdisciplinary Issues Recognized, but little progress possible Emergence of Concept of the Importance of Oceans to Society Ocean Science: 21st Century Research Frontiers Now Interdisciplinary Ocean Science Ocean Science as a Complex System Science: Multiscale Nonlinear Dynamics in addition to Feedbacks Ocean Science as a Component of Whole Earth Science – Ocean, Atmosphere, Ice, Solid Earth, Biosphere: Interactions in addition to Integral Processes Exploitation of Healthy Oceans to benefit Human population of the Planet Earth

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Interdisciplinary Ocean Science Today Research underway on coupled physical, biological, chemical, sedimentological, acoustical, optical processes Ocean prediction as long as science in addition to operational applications has now been initiated on basin in addition to regional scales Interdisciplinary processes are now known to occur on multiple interactive scales in space in addition to time with bi-directional feedbacks THE GLOBAL COASTAL OCEAN Interesting in addition to important interdisciplinary marine system Contribution to global ocean dynamics generally COASTAL OCEAN INTERACTIONS Link together the l in addition to , the open sea, the atmosphere in addition to the underlying sediments Impact global processes disproportionately to relative volume COASTAL ZONE CHANGES Local in addition to global as long as cings Natural in addition to anthropogenic origins Sensitive to climate change Increasing human coastal populations in addition to impact COASTAL OCEAN MANAGEMENT Scientific underst in addition to ing essential input to advanced methods Atkinson, et al., Vol. 13, THE SEA Processes Vol 13

The coastal ocean’s role in the global carbon cycle Is coastal ocean net source or sink of CO2 to atmosphere Conclusions controversial at this time Varying definitions Balances difficult to work out High coastal ocean biological production Most biologically productive part of world’s oceans Processes which drive productivity not globally well known Natural ecosystem variability Shifts pre-date significant human influences Physical-biological couplings under investigation The role of the bottom Coupling of bottom to water column generally poorly quantified on a global basis Underst in addition to ing human impacts on the coastal ocean Anthropogenic influences increasingly obvious in addition to diverse Nutrient release can cause harmful algal blooms Fishing practices can change ecosystems Need as long as more data Status of Knowledge Ducklow in addition to McCallister, et al., Vol. 13, THE SEA Biogeochemical Dynamics – Carbon in addition to Nutrient Exchanges Exchanges between l in addition to , coastal ocean in addition to open ocean 3 carbon pumps regulating CO2 between surface in addition to deep ocean Biologically mediated exchanges between inorganic in addition to organic carbon pools Alongi, Vol. 13, THE SEA Key processes linking l in addition to , sea in addition to atmosphere Intermingling of estuarine in addition to oceanic boundaries in addition to food webs High fertility of coastal ocean ecosystem driven by nutrient inputs from rivers in addition to groundwater, upwelling, exchanges at shelf edge in addition to atmospheric inputs Ecosystem Dynamics

Jahnke, Vol. 13, THE SEA Sediment Dynamics – Transport in addition to Reaction Processes Particulates converted through dissolution in addition to remineralization Adsorption, precipitation in addition to biological production creates particulates Integrated Ocean Observing in addition to Prediction Systems Plat as long as ms, sensors in addition to integrative models: HOPS-ROMS real-time as long as ecasting in addition to re-analyses AOSN II AOSN II Critical reasons as long as coastal measurements: Establishing a global baseline of coastal in as long as mation, Discovering ocean processes, underst in addition to ing how they work, in addition to developing parameterizations, Testing hypotheses, Driving in addition to evaluating numerical models, Observing change, either secular (as in the atmospheric increase of CO2), or low frequency (such as ENSO phenomenology), in addition to Essential as long as monitoring in addition to input to management Ability to measure improved radically New sensors (optical techniques, Video Plankton Recorders, etc.) How to deploy sensors evolving Remote sensing, AUVs, Ocean Observatories Knowledge of space/time scales is critical Frequency, repetition, resolution Measurements in addition to Observations

Models Cury, et al., Vol. 13, THE SEA Linked, Coupled Models Runge, et al., Vol. 13, THE SEA Linked Coupled Models in addition to Adaptive Modeling Harvard Ocean Prediction System – HOPS Robinson in addition to Lermusiaux, Vol. 12, THE SEA

Measurements in addition to Models: Data Assimilation in Advanced Interdisciplinary Ocean Prediction Systems Robinson in addition to Lermusiaux, Vol. 12, THE SEA Physics – Density Biology – Fluorescence (Phytoplankton) Acoustics – Backscatter (Zooplankton) Almeira-Oran front in Mediterranean Sea Fielding et al, JMS, 2001 Griffiths et al., Vol. 12, THE SEA Interdisciplinary Processes – Biological-Physical-Acoustical Interactions PAA PAO PAB P = POA POO POB PBA PBO PBB Coupled Interdisciplinary Data Assimilation Physics: xO = [T, S, U, V, W] Biology: xB = [Ni, Pi, Zi, Bi, Di, Ci] Acoustics: xA = [Pressure (p), Phase ()] x = [xA xO xB] Coupled error covariance with off-diagonal terms Unified interdisciplinary state vector Lermusiaux in addition to Chiu, Acoustic Variability, 2002 Robinson in addition to Lermusiaux, Theoretical in addition to Computational Acoustics, 2003

Coupled Physical-Acoustical Data Assimilation of real TL-CTD data: TL measurements affect TL in addition to C everywhere. Source Receivers (VLA) Day 7 Day 10 Temperature Phytoplankton Physical Assim. Phytoplankton Coupled Assim. Coupled Physical-Biological Data Assimilation – Compatibility Issues Anderson in addition to Robinson, DSR I, 48, 1139-1168. Nesting HOPS in a Coarse-Resolution Climate PCM A.R. Robinson, P.J. Haley, Jr., W.G. Leslie Nest a high-resolution hydrodynamic model within a coarse-resolution Global Circulation Model (GCM) to provide high-resolution as long as ecasts of mesoscale features in the Gulf of Maine Results applicable to cod in addition to lobster temperature-dependent behavior change, including recruitment Parallel Climate Model (PCM) outputs as long as 2000 in addition to 2085 as long as coarse circulation (1 degree) Gulf of Maine Feature Model provides higher-resolution synoptic circulation (5km) Harvard Ocean Prediction System (HOPS) dynamically adjusts Feature Model output Setup Concept

Gulf of Maine Feature Model Parallel Climate Model (PCM) Ocean Fields Prevalent circulation features are identified Synoptic water-mass structures are characterized in addition to parameterized to develop T-S feature models Temperature in addition to Salinity feature model profiles are placed on a regional circulation template Gangopadhyay, A., A.R. Robinson, et al., 2002. Feature-oriented regional modeling in addition to simulations (FORMS) in the Gulf of Maine in addition to Georges Bank, Continental Shelf Research, 23 (3-4), 317-353 Dynamically adjusted fields as long as September 2000 Compare September 2000 in addition to September 2085 Dynamically adjusted fields as long as September 2085 Temperature Salinity Temperature increases from 2000-2085 Salinity increases from 2000-2085 Details under study Fields provided to Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) as long as studies on regional climate change effects http://oceans.deas.harvard.edu/UCS Regions in addition to Syntheses Western boundary – blue Eastern boundary – yellow Polar boundary – green Semi-enclosed seas – red

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Western Boundaries Loder, Boicourt in addition to Simpson, Vol. 11, THE SEA Lohrenz in addition to Castro Vol. 14A, THE SEA Western Ocean Boundaries Complex circulation patterns, typified by eddies in addition to current instabilities, are key to enhanced nutrient entrainment in addition to high biological productivity. Exchanges between offshore in addition to coastal waters create a dynamic environment, in many cases stimulating high primary productivity. Role of intrusions of subsurface waters in enhancing nutrient supply is important as long as extensive areas of continental shelves. Linkages are evident within regions, in addition to important linkages exist between western boundary current systems in addition to other regions. Consequences in addition to importance as long as ecosystem processes have only begun to be explored. Lack of observations limits underst in addition to ing of physics in addition to associated ecosystem processes. Examples: linkages between primary production in addition to higher trophic levels, in addition to impact on recruitment of key fisheries species; biogeochemical rates critical as long as carbon in addition to nitrogen budgets; microbial processing of terrigeneous organic matter; denitrification; in addition to , nitrogen fixation.

Eastern Boundaries Hill, Hickey, Shillington, Strub, Brink, Barton, Thomas, Vol. 11, THE SEA Mackas, Strub, Thomas, Montecino, Vol. 14A, THE SEA Eastern Ocean Boundaries Mechanisms in addition to rates of nutrient supply, in addition to differences in these between macronutrients (N, P, Si) vs. micronutrients (Fe, Cu, ) Within-region zonation of habitat utilization – ‘hotspots’ of high productivity in addition to abundance, spawning centers, nursery grounds. Strong variability at interannual to decadal time scales. Important between- in addition to within-region contrasts in seasonal in addition to event-scale timing in addition to sequencing of key processes, especially relative phasing of nutrient supply, advection, mixing, in addition to somatic in addition to reproductive growth of biota. Role of topographic complexity: isl in addition to s, capes, canyons in addition to shelf-edge irregularities produce important in addition to recurrent perturbations of distribution fields. Important research issues in addition to oceanographic mechanisms are important in all or most regions, including:

Progress in interdisciplinary research on the multi-scale dynamics of the global coastal ocean Three emerging concepts coupled pelagic-benthic dynamical processes interactive between the water column in addition to the sediments significant contribution arising from coastal ocean biogeochemical cycles to global cycles in addition to budgets large variety of dominant structures, trophic interactions in addition to variabilities (robust-rapid change-robust) that occur in the highly productive coastal ocean ecosystems These three concepts in addition to their linkages now provide a powerful potential framework as long as research directions Challenging from intellectual, scientific, technical in addition to methodological viewpoints specific research issues in addition to next step problems essential To advance underst in addition to ing of the dynamics of the complex global coastal ocean, critical processes must be identified in addition to quantified by critical experiments in addition to concomitant advanced theoretical/numerical models. Efficient progress can be made by using processes to identify dynamically analogous regions of the global coastal ocean in addition to sharing scientific in as long as mation, technologies in addition to methodologies among them coastal deep sea exchanges, benthic productivity, CO2 uptake/release, recruitment, etc. issues of measurability in addition to modelability Many types of interactions among relatively well studied in addition to less well understood regions can be fruitful Progress 2: Critical Processes The material presented indicates the great complexity of the requisite scientific input in addition to the unique opportunity as long as advanced management now provided by ongoing scientific in addition to methodological progress, including advanced interdisciplinary ocean prediction systems. Efficient in addition to holistic management of the global coastal ocean in addition to its interconnected natural in addition to national subregions is essential to ensure the health of the coastal seas in addition to their ecosystems, in addition to the well being of the ever increasing human coastal populations. Achievable only via effective in addition to well-motivated collaboration in addition to cooperation among the scientific, technical, governmental, commercial, economic in addition to environmental communities. From a technical in addition to methodological viewpoint we are at the threshold of a new management era.

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