Our Energy Future Focus The Nation Jan. 31, 2008 U. C. Irvine Natural Gas Efficiency Increases Solar Power Detroits Strategy on Light Vehicles Plug-in hybrids in addition to Electric Cars
Thiel Kelley, Jeanne, Contributing Editor has reference to this Academic Journal, PHwiki organized this Journal Our Energy Future Focus The Nation Jan. 31, 2008 U. C. Irvine Dennis Silverman Physics in addition to Astronomy U. C. Irvine www.physics.uci.edu/~silverma/ Introduction The Future of Fossil Fuels Fossil Fuel Plant Improvements in addition to Sequestration Greenhouse Gas Free Sources Solar Wind Nuclear Automotive Plans Conservation Conclusions Long Term Oil Projections Oil Reserves are uncertain by a factor of two, between one in addition to two trillion barrels. Higher price favors more recovery, in addition to substitutes as tar s in addition to s, in addition to syngas from coal. Plateau likely as infrastructure costly
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US Natural Gas Could Decline by 2020, or Could Find New Fields Natural gas produces 20% of US electricity Imports to rise to 6 Trillion cubic feet (Tcf) by 2030, out of a total now of 22 Tcf. Canadian natural gas is delivered by pipeline. Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) to be by tankers with giant pressurized spherical tanks. Need port factories, tankers in addition to sources. Natural Gas Efficiency Increases Natural gas provides 20% of US electricity. Conservation Maxim: A kilowatt hour saved is three kilowatts of fossil fuel that is not burned. Clean natural gas plants with steam turbines only operate at 34% efficiency. This can be increased to 50% with new combined cycle gas turbine followed by steam turbine. With cogeneration of water heating where possible (CHP, combined heat in addition to power), can increase efficiency up to 89%. ConEd feeds steam to 100,000 buildings in New York Also can do in small distributed power units US natural gas could be gone in a decade with future reliance on imports including Liquid Natural Gas terminals on both coasts. Natural gas, CH4 ,, burns both carbon in addition to hydrogen. Coal Availability Coal provides 50% of US electricity. Coal burns at 34% efficiency, but generates about twice the CO2 as a natural gas plant, since it only burns carbon. Can increase efficiency to 50% by a gasification process be as long as e combustion. Can increase efficiency to 80% by cogeneration with using excess heat as long as water heating. We may have 250 year of coal available in the US An average coal plant lasts 76 years. Even though we may have 250 year of coal remaining, the price may rise as get to less clean coal in addition to harder to mine coal deposits. US National Academy of Sciences has called as long as a new assessment of coal resources which are subject to modern assessment, mining in addition to safety practices.
CO2 Sequestration Sequestration would require burning of 50% more coal as long as the same power, yet the extra CO2 would also be sequestered. The cost of the 275 megawatt coal gasification pilot sequestration plant Futuregen has risen from $1billion to $1.5 billion, in addition to is now sited in Illinois. The cost rise was from increases in the price of steel, cement, in addition to turbines. Four of these would be needed to equal a 1.1 gigawatt (billion watt) power plant, which would then cost $6 billion. The administration has converted Futuregen up to four plants, in addition to will pay as long as the carbon sequestration part, with industry paying as long as the power part. The Electric Power Research Institute projects that by 2030, sequestration plants will cost more than nuclear or natural gas plants. But present power plant not located over fields or domes where the CO2 would go. Need pipelines, or new plants with further transmission lines. Also need more transportation in railroads, ships, in addition to transmission lines. However, a present coal plant coupled to generate electricity as long as an electric plug-in hybrid, can give the hybrid a fuel equivalent of 67 mpg. Solar Power Rooftop Silicon Based Solar Photovoltaic (PV) is a factor of 10 times more costly than even nuclear power. Solar concentrator PV cost half of panels. Solar thermal concentrator 1/3 to ¼ of solar PV panels in addition to can carry energy into the night. Solar Power is as long as daytime, missing the 4pm peak power needs. 30% efficiency loss if not tracking the sun. Year round average is only 1/5 of maximum capability paid as long as . Need to clean off dirt from cells. Need a south facing roof. Not very applicable to Northern or Eastern US. Already opposition to new power lines to the desert. PG&E with Ausra to build a 1 gigawatt solar water plant with heat storage as long as $3 billion. It can produce power as long as up to 20 hours a day. It takes about 4 square miles of solar cells at 10% efficiency to generate a gigawatt (a billion Watts) of power at maximum exposure. Since Cali as long as nia electricity use peaks at 50 gigawatts it would take 200 square miles of photocells at peak sunlight. To generate an average of a gigawatt, assuming storage, takes 20 square miles. Best buy: rooftop solar water heating now, at $5,000 per home, then subtract rebates of $2500. Heating is free once installed in addition to paid as long as . 38% of SC Edison power is already greenhouse gas free. There is a shortage of silicon now, which probably also contributes to a high price. Thin Film Solar Panel Breakthroughs The Nanosolar company in silicon valley has announced they are about to manufacture thin film solar panels that are printed on an electrode, as long as about $1 per watt of power, in addition to sell them as long as about $2 per watt. This is to be compared to the current silicon based panels which are grown like computer chips, made at $3 per watt in addition to sold as long as $6 per watt. For comparison, a nuclear plant which also is greenhouse gas free with negligible fuel cost may cost $3-4 per watt. However, the solar cells still have the 1/5 utility factor. This also makes the new cells competitive with utility based solar thermal power in addition to concentrating 500 mirrors on high efficiency solar cells. The cells are also more efficient under low light in addition to low angle light. They are produced in rolls in addition to are much lighter than silicon or glass based panels. It uses less than 1% of the semiconductor material of silicon solar cells. Nanosolars plant in San Jose will produce 430 megawatts a year of panels. Venture capitalists have spent $344 million in this new thin film area, which also includes the companies Miasole, Solopower, Solyndra, in addition to Ascent Solar. The printable nanoparticle thin film material called CIGS is made from copper indium gallium selenide The silicon cell industry is fighting back, however. CIGS thin film may be 15-16% efficient, but silicon is approaching 20-22%. There will also be thin silicon crystals less than 1/100 the thickness of the present ones. They have 8% efficiency in addition to sell as long as about $4 per watt. They can cover windows or buildings.
Gr in addition to Solar Plan as long as 2100 Scientific American, January 2008 Ken Zweibel (NREL), James Mason, Vasilis Fthenakis (BNL) Almost all of US power to be generated by solar plants in the Southwest. Allows as long as 1% growth in total power, to 2.5 times current usage. Meets 90% of transportation with hydrogen (why not electric) Reduces CO2 emissions 92% below 2005 levels Total of 12.7 Terawatts solar power (1TW = 1,000 Gigawatts) 5.2 TW direct solar power (2.9 TW is PV, 2.3 TW is concentrated) 7.5 TW solar power through DC power lines to local compressed air plants as long as 24 hour power retrieval (why not wind, nuclear, biofuels, in addition to hydro in addition to geothermal in the west) Extra power sources 1.3 TW distributed PV 1 TW wind farms 0.2 TW geothermal power, 0.5 TW geothermal water heating 0.25 TW biofuels Uses 165,000 square miles of PV in addition to concentrated solar power plants. Coincidentally, this is the area of Cali as long as nia. Needs only $420 billion in subsidies to start up. The rest from utility payments. Wind Power Fluctuations on time scales: Seasonally (highest in springtime, next in summer) Varies with weather Day night switch in direction between ocean in addition to desert in Cali as long as nia Dies out around sunset or peak power need High velocity gusts much more efficient Wind velocity range of 12 to 30 mph Average wind power only 1/3 of maximum capacity built as long as Example, a 3 megawatt Vesta V90, has a 70 m tower, with 90 m diameter rotor, in addition to in an 18 m ocean depth goes down another 30 m into the seabed. Spacing needed is 3-5 times diameter side to side, in addition to 5-10 times diameter in depth. Needs 1,000 large in addition to separated 3 MW wind towers to generate a gigawatt on average, as in a nuclear plant or a large coal plant. At 360 m size plus spacing, would stretch 360 km or 216 miles. Spaced at 630 m deep, a 50 x 20 array would occupy 227 km^2 or 82 square miles Needs special mountain passes or mountain tops, or far out in the ocean, or a Northern or Midwest State The wind turbines have over 8,000 components, in addition to Europe has orders as long as the next two years of production. Nuclear Power There are 440 nuclear plants worldwide. They generate 18% of worldwide electricity, at 350 gigawatts There are 103 US nuclear plants generating 20% of our electricity There are plans as long as 23 new nuclear power plants in the US 5 nuclear plants of 1.1 gigawatts serve Cali as long as nia, as long as 16% of our electricity France now generates 80% of its electricity from 63 nuclear power plants in addition to Japan generates 30% from its 44 nuclear power plants. The energy cost associated with producing the nuclear fuel is only 5% of the power generated. Nuclear reactors do not produce CO2, SO2, mercury, or smog. Nuclear power is about a million times greater per atom consumed, than fossil fuel power. So the waste should be on the order of a million times smaller. Each Cali as long as nia nuclear plant is equivalent to 3.5 million tons of coal a year, which would produce 13 million tons of CO2. The waste of a US nuclear plant is about 50 tons a year. If all electricity were from nuclear plants, 50 years of waste as long as a family would be the size of a hockey puck. So we should be persistent about finding solutions to the nuclear waste problem.
Nuclear Power Status The water inside the nuclear plant is never released. A separate water system drives the steam turbines. Nuclear plant safety has increased since the two nuclear accidents, with safety features being increased. No one was injured in the TMI accident, in addition to the confinement vessel worked. There has not been an accident in the last twenty years, in addition to new plants will be designed with more fail safe features. But, nuclear plants cant be built on small scales, so their costs may be $3 to $4 billion dollars each, with needed government guarantees as long as the financial risk of their non-completion. There are about 20 nuclear plants being planned as long as the US Present nuclear plants need some repairs in addition to upgrades to extend their 20 year licenses as long as another 20 years. Then they will need to be replaced to continue the 20% of US electricity that is generated greenhouse gas free by nuclear power. Building US plants does not lead to proliferation of nuclear weapons. Cali as long as nia has a law against new nuclear plants until a waste disposal method has been approved by Congress. The state is not including such plants in its future. The Northeast US does not have the plentiful renewable resources of the West, in addition to nuclear power is a more viable option as long as them. Still nuclear power in the US might not grow to be a much larger percentage of the electricity source, but its share should not be diminished. The first new reactors will have loan guarantees as long as their $3-4 million cost. Toshiba is designing mini-nuclear 10 megawatt reactors as long as small communities using fast neutrons with common Uranium. Detroits Strategy on Light Vehicles The Federal 2020 average of 35 mpg over the present 26 mpg is really only a 30% reduction in fuel use, since you have to take the reciprocal to get gallons per mile. A better average would be on the tons of CO2 generated as long as a 15,000 mile average yearly usage, also presented by US Dept. of Transportation. The 30% reduction is on new cars in 2020, in addition to will take about 15 more years to be present in half of cars on the road. Depending on how the average is imposed in detail, it may lead to loopholes since it is based on a mpg average, not a fuel usage average. In particular, if ¼ of buyers get 100 mpg plug-in hybrids, ¾ can get 13 mpg hummers, with still a 35 mpg average. Detroit first plans more 85% ethanol capable cars to avoid the limits as long as such cars until 2014. They also will be putting out hybrid versions of most larger cars in addition to light trucks. Other technology will be engines that shut down some cylinders at cruising speed, turbochargers as long as more air intake, in addition to pressurized fuel injection to get more uni as long as m ignition. Automobile efficiency has actually increased 46% since the CAFE st in addition to ards were initiated in 1978, but that has all been used to increase vehicle weight, in addition to not to improve mileage. World in addition to Cali as long as nia Fuel Economy in addition to GHG Emission St in addition to ards Cali as long as nias GHG emissions st in addition to ards would rise faster than the US new plan. CA (44 mpg) would save 74% more emissions than US (35 mpg) as long as 2020 cars. Inclusively, CA plan would save double the emissions by 2020. US plan in 2020 (35 mpg) still far behind Japan in addition to European Union Europeans use 1/6 the gas of Americans due to public transport, city structure, smaller cars, motorcycles, in addition to walking
Plug-in hybrids in addition to Electric Cars Automotive internal combustion engines are only 15% efficient in delivering the power in gasoline to the wheels. Electric motors are 80% efficient. Electric power plants are 33% efficient, in addition to natural gas has 40% less CO2 emission than gasoline. So plug in hybrids driving on electricity or electric cars can get effectively over 100 mpg when comparing their emissions to an internal combustion engine. An accounting of spare electricity production in the US on a 24 hour basis shows that 73% of US driving could be delivered by electricity with suitable cars. Un as long as tunately, only about 25% of Cali as long as nia driving could be powered by spare capacity. A present coal plant coupled to generate electricity as long as an average present car made as an electric plug-in hybrid, can give the hybrid a fuel equivalent of 67 mpg. The problem is in making large in addition to safe batteries, with Lithium ion being the current best c in addition to idate, but with limited range. The touted GM Chevy Volt plug-in hybrid with a 40 mile electric range will probably be delayed beyond 2010. A Saturn Vue with a 10 mile electric range will be produced sooner. Toyota is planning a plug-in Prius in 2010 with an 8 mile electric range. (More important, it is planning cheaper stripped down Prius hybrids.) Solutions in Conservation Cheapest, easiest solutions, are in Conservation We are personally in control, in addition to we can start now. Early mitigation saves costs in adaptation in addition to suffering Conservation saves money as well as greenhouse gases For electricity, a factor of three leverage in savings of CO2 pollution since most fossil fuel plants are only 34% efficient. Technology already present to solve auto pollution: Drive smaller, more fuel efficient cars. Work at home some days or use communications to replace car trips. Carpool Carbon offset investing to end de as long as estation or burning of agricultural wastes rather than plowing them under. De as long as estation is fifth of CO2 emissions worldwide Require companies or government to pay as long as carbon offsets as long as required airline travel Over 800 cities have signed the Mayors Climate Protection Agreement, which is to satisfy the Kyoto protocol of cutbacks to 1990 levels minus 5 or 7 % in greenhouse gas emissions. Hard to satisfy if there also has been population growth, in addition to with a 2012 target year. Automotive Emission Savings Automobiles are by far the largest CO2 emitters that individuals have control over. A large commuting SUV emits 13 tons of CO2 a year, as much as 3 residences A typical car driven 15,000 miles emits 7 tons a year There are several simple things that people can do now to bring down these emissions, save money, in addition to lower the price of gas in addition to save on highway construction If you have two available vehicles, drive the one with the lowest emissions Obey the speed limits, in addition to dont drive with rapid accelerations in addition to breaking Combine trips Keep windows closed, AC off, use econ mode When available, switch to low friction tires Carpool: There are 24 bus routes connecting in Irvine But there are 90,000 single commuter routes driven daily in Irvine About 50 commuters leave within two miles of your home in addition to go within two miles of your work Drivers can pick you up in addition to drop you off at a st in addition to ard time without walking to a bus stop in addition to waiting, or requiring a bus transfer Commuters get to use the carpool lane Total savings to a carpooler to UCI is $500 in gas in addition to $500 in parking as long as a total of $1,000 per year per carpooler It also saves 8,000 miles driving on average, saving 4 tons of CO2 as long as each carpooler beyond the first Some industry or business employees can save much more on parking
Residential Energy Conservation Household electricity of 6,000 kWh per year in Southern Cali as long as nia generates 4,000 lbs CO2. A single plasma TV can use 10% of household electricity Lighting is 22% of household electricity. CFLs cut lighting down to ¼ from inc in addition to escent bulbs. This reduces household electricity by 17% or about 1,000 kWh per year. Replacing an old refrigerator in addition to discarding a second one saves money. In SC Edison, 38% of electricity generated is already GHG free. Cali as long as nia Million Solar Roof Program with typical 3kWatt system, costs about $20,000, but prices may come down soon. $7,500 CA rebate followed by 30% Federal Tax rebate up to $2,000. Total cost then only $10,500. (Caveat: solar roofs dont work at night, when you might need most of your power.) Best bet: wait a few years as long as rooftop solar to drop to a third of cost. Household water heating generates 2,300 lbs CO2 Rooftop solar water heating can cut 2/3 of your water heating, at a cost of about $5,000, minus state rebate of $1,500 in addition to 30% Federal tax credit on the rest (about $1,000). Washing clothes in cold water (also stops shrinking) Household Space Heating Household space heating 2,300 lbs CO2 Housing in addition to building design as long as less winter heating in addition to less summer air conditioning Passive solar: Eaves, awnings, outside shades, window tinting, window shades, drapes, shade trees, double panes, skylights, cool roofs, insulation, in addition to fans, will protect against summer heat, in addition to some winter heat loss. Heat conservation: Controlling thermostat, manually or automatically. Sleeping with com as long as ter, wearing sweaters in winter. Isolating unused rooms from heating in winter, in addition to better insulation. Also lighting indoor mass in floor will hold heat through the night. Turning off heat or a/c when leaving house. Household Water Use Household water use adds another 1/8 to household energy use in Southern Cali as long as nia (1,100 lbs CO2), because of the long distance the water is pumped. Half of the water is used outside as long as irrigation Low water in addition to drought tolerant plants in addition to lawns or paving may be needed anyway if the Western drought continues Low flow shower heads in addition to toilets are equipment related Behavioral modes are taking shorter showers, using economy cycles in dishwashers in addition to washing machines, shutting off the water during tooth brushing, switching to an electric shaver
Cali as long as nias Goals UN goal may be 50% reduction in greenhouse gases by 2050. This would be on the way to limit global warming to 2° F by the end of the century. Cali as long as nias goal is an 80% reduction by 2050. Cali as long as nians per capita already only emit ½ the greenhouse gases of the US per capita. The US 2020 goal as long as new vehicles of 35 mpg over the present 26 mpg average, is actually a 30% reduction in greenhouse gases per vehicle mile. Biofuels: Reality Check on Corn Ethanol Ethanol from corn is about neutral as far as global warming is concerned. It takes about as much energy to produce ethanol as is contained in it, due to farming, heating as long as fermentation, in addition to fertilizer production. Corn also uses a lot of water in addition to the fertilizer produces nitrous oxides greenhouse gas. It Ethanol also cannot be pipelined as it absorbs water, in addition to damages pipes, so it must be trucked or train delivered. Corn ethanol is correctly only referred to as an energy independence fuel as it can be produced from US fuels without using imported oil. Even if the entire initial corn crop was used as long as ethanol, it would only supply 15% of US gasoline. Currently 1/3 of the corn crop is now used as long as ethanol production. The price of corn has doubled. Almost half of corn was used as long as feedstock, in addition to almost half as long as food additives. Since wheat farms are being converted to produce corn, the price of wheat has doubled. Also being converted are soy farms, in addition to soy is up 40%. Corn ethanol is being subsidized at 51¢ a gallon. Biofuels: Cellulosic Conversion Using corn stalks, or switchgrass is dependent on being able to convert their cellulosic fiber into ethanol. This would work well as long as making a more renewable fuel with less greenhouse gases used in its production. Switchgrass also does not require much water in addition to can be used in areas where it does not take away from the food supply. Pipeline fuels of heavier alcohols propanol in addition to butanol are being investigated. Much research on this is funded by the BP oil company at UC Berkeley in addition to Stan as long as d.
Fuels in the shaded area are considered advantageous in both their overall environmental impacts in addition to greenhouse-gas emissions. Switchgrass in addition to sugarcane give much less GHG than corn. UC Irvine Research Institutes in Energy in addition to in the Environment Combustion Laboratory (UCICL) 1970 National Fuel Cell Research Center 1998 Urban Water Resource Center 2001 Institute of Geophysics in addition to Planetary Physics (IGPP) Multi-Campus Research Unit at UCI 2001 Newkirk Center as long as Science in addition to Society 2001 Atmospheric Integrated Research as long as Underst in addition to ing Chemistry at Interfaces (AirUCI) 2002 School of Physical Sciences Center as long as Solar Energy 2007 Henry Samueli School of Engineering Endowed Chair in addition to Assistant Professor Position In Nuclear Waste Remediation New Energy in addition to Environment Institute with 8 new positions Tri-alpha fusion research off campus Universal Carbon Emission Accounting I am proposing a universal accounting of our carbon emissions in terms of pounds or kilograms of CO2 or equivalent greenhouse gases being generated. In our energy bills, you have to be an engineer to h in addition to le or convert all of the units used to the actual GHG generated. We pump gas in gallons, use electricity in kilowatt hours, heat water in addition to houses in therms, take airline flights in miles, in addition to use water in gallons. Only utilities know how much GHG is generated as long as a kWh, in addition to only airlines know how much is generated as long as the mileage in addition to route that we traveled. So the proposal is that gas stations have signs posted on each pump to convert gallons pumped to CO2 that will be generated in their usage. Electric company bills come each month not only with the kWh listed, but also the CO2 generated as long as their mix of energy sources. Gas company bills convert the gas supplied to CO2 generated. Water bills would also have these figures as long as the delivery area. Airline tickets also print next to the miles traveled the CO2 generated by fuel typically used on the specific flight that you are taking. People then could even buy small calculators in which they can total all of these figures to find their carbon footprint. This should be required by federal law, in addition to monitored by the EPA as long as accuracy st in addition to ards.
Conclusions We must hasten to fund research in addition to construct pilot plants to learn about new energy production, transportation or sequestration technology. Decisions can be phased in as we learn more year by year. Yet goals as long as 2050 must begin soon, since any power plants, homes, or businesses we build now will be present then. The 2% per year reduction in CO2 will lead to 80% reduction by 2050 When we replace power plants or power generating industry infrastructure, however, we must replace them with 80% emission savings now. Cars, especially SUVs, can last 30 years, in addition to it will take 5 years of automotive plant conversion to replace them, so we have to start planning to replace them now. Individual conservation choices in cars, solar water heating, in addition to household electricity in addition to heating are under our control. Considering the total invention in addition to continual replacement of energy sources in addition to uses that occurred over the last century, the future cannot be predicted, but we must explore as many possibilities as we can, in addition to not prematurely close any off. Extra Slides The Power of Commuting in Irvine As an example of the ease of pairing commuter partners, we examine Irvine by scaling 2000 census data up by 50% in addition to rounding off 200,000 residents, 110,000 commuters, 8% carpool, 5% walk, 5% work at home City area 46 square miles (roughly 7 miles x 7 miles) Density 4,300 per square mile Carpooling capability 90,000 drive alone, so density of lone drivers is 2,000 per square mile average commuting time 23 minutes assume that is a 15 mile distance, draw a circle Work area pi x 15^2 = 700 sq miles So about 130 people in Irvine commute to the same square mile work area That is 3 commuters in each square residential mile, to the same square mile work area, or 12 from a distance of two miles residential, or 50 as long as a two mile work in addition to residential radius Comparison to buses There are about 24 bus routes connecting in Irvine But there are 90,000 single driver routes driven daily in Irvine Fifty leave within two miles of your home in addition to go within two miles of your work, in addition to can pick you up in addition to drop you off at a st in addition to ard time, without walking to or waiting at a bus stop, or requiring a bus transfer
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