Outlook as long as the US Economy Over the Coming Year Grading My Predictions from Last Year Housing Market Where are we now in the business cycle February 2009
Watt, Peggy, Contributing Editor has reference to this Academic Journal, PHwiki organized this Journal Outlook as long as the US Economy Over the Coming YearProf. Steven KyleCornell UniversityMarch 2015Grading My Predictions from Last YearMost economists are taught to avoid naming both a number in addition to a dateI do it anyway every year in addition to post the results on my websiteHow did I do last timeMy as long as ecast: 3% or a bit less if Europe has a serious crisis
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My as long as ecast: mid 6% rangePart timers & discouraged workers also downMy as long as ecast: inflation not a worry
My as long as ecast: Near zeroReal Rates Low Across the Board
Housing MarketIt was the source of the mayhem in 2008-09Continues to gradually stage a comebackReal estate a slow moving market at best of times
Where are we now in the business cycleStill on the upswing though still more gradual than we might likeCoincident in addition to Leading Indicators still in the green
February 2009Still Lots of Slack in Labor MarketLabor Market as long as Prime Age Groups Seeing Demographic Change
Industrial Production Higher than Previous Peak but Capacity Utilization Still Below 80%Consumer Spending Still Rising at Trend Rate
Household Debt Back to Normal levels Inflation Still Low by Historical St in addition to ardsDont Worry About This Scary Chart! Really!
Still Not Much Wage PressureFiscal Policy Continues to ContractEurope the Biggest Wild CardMost recent Greece agreement not really an agreementFundamental Issue: They are stuck with one monetary policy as long as all when some of them really really really need a different policyMy worry: Continuation of policies that generate Great Depression levels of employment discredit centrist politicians
Outlook as long as PolicyMonetary Policy will be continuation of the present expansionary low interest policyFiscal Policy is anyones guess. We NEED investment but seem to be getting even more extreme disfunctionHolding economy hostage is no way to governPredictionsGDP growth at 3%Unemployment 5-5.5%Inflation Not a worryInterest rates 1% or less at short end Long rates may creep up if wages accelerateFiscal Policy Lets all pray as long as sanityEurope – ditto
Watt, Peggy Contributing Editor
Watt, Peggy is from United States and they belong to PC World and they are from San Francisco, United States got related to this Particular Journal. and Watt, Peggy deal with the subjects like Computer Hardware; Computers; Enterprise Computing; PCs/Macs/Laptops; Software Applications
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