Outlook as long as the US Economy Over the Coming Year Grading My Predictions from Last Year Housing Market Where are we now in the business cycle February 2009

Outlook as long as the US Economy Over the Coming Year Grading My Predictions from Last Year Housing Market Where are we now in the business cycle February 2009 www.phwiki.com

Outlook as long as the US Economy Over the Coming Year Grading My Predictions from Last Year Housing Market Where are we now in the business cycle February 2009

Watt, Peggy, Contributing Editor has reference to this Academic Journal, PHwiki organized this Journal Outlook as long as the US Economy Over the Coming YearProf. Steven KyleCornell UniversityMarch 2015Grading My Predictions from Last YearMost economists are taught to avoid naming both a number in addition to a dateI do it anyway every year in addition to post the results on my websiteHow did I do last timeMy as long as ecast: “3% or a bit less if Europe has a serious crisis”

Luzerne County Community College PA www.phwiki.com

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My as long as ecast: “ mid 6% range”Part timers & discouraged workers also downMy as long as ecast: “inflation not a worry”

My as long as ecast: “Near zero”Real Rates Low Across the Board

Housing MarketIt was the source of the mayhem in 2008-09Continues to gradually stage a comebackReal estate a slow moving market at best of times

Where are we now in the business cycleStill on the upswing though still more gradual than we might likeCoincident in addition to Leading Indicators still in the green

February 2009Still Lots of Slack in Labor MarketLabor Market as long as Prime Age Groups Seeing Demographic Change

Industrial Production Higher than Previous Peak but Capacity Utilization Still Below 80%Consumer Spending Still Rising at Trend Rate

Watt, Peggy PC World Contributing Editor www.phwiki.com

Household Debt Back to “Normal” levels Inflation Still Low by Historical St in addition to ardsDon’t Worry About This Scary Chart! Really!

Still Not Much Wage PressureFiscal Policy Continues to ContractEurope the Biggest Wild CardMost recent Greece agreement not really an agreementFundamental Issue: They are stuck with one monetary policy as long as all when some of them really really really need a different policyMy worry: Continuation of policies that generate Great Depression levels of employment discredit centrist politicians

Outlook as long as PolicyMonetary Policy will be continuation of the present expansionary low interest policyFiscal Policy is anyone’s guess. We NEED investment but seem to be getting even more extreme disfunctionHolding economy hostage is no way to governPredictionsGDP growth at 3%Unemployment 5-5.5%Inflation – Not a worryInterest rates – 1% or less at short end – Long rates may creep up if wages accelerateFiscal Policy Lets all pray as long as sanityEurope – ditto

Watt, Peggy Contributing Editor

Watt, Peggy is from United States and they belong to PC World and they are from  San Francisco, United States got related to this Particular Journal. and Watt, Peggy deal with the subjects like Computer Hardware; Computers; Enterprise Computing; PCs/Macs/Laptops; Software Applications

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