Past in addition to Future Climate Simulation Summary
Ehmsen, Erika, Copy Chief has reference to this Academic Journal, PHwiki organized this Journal Past in addition to Future Climate Simulation Lecture 4 Introduction Simulation of the last millenium Future emissions scenarios Future climate simulations Atmospheric CO2 Oceans absorb approx. 25% of emissions, in addition to l in addition to (plants) absorb a further 25% Leaving 50% of emissions to increase atmosphere concentration CO2 emissions
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The Greenhouse Effect Radiative Forcing anthropogenic component Historical Forcing in addition to response (century)
Historical Forcing in addition to response (millenium) Attribution (global) Attribution (regional)
The future climate sensitivity “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” -Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics “Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge. ” -Lao Tzu, 6th Century BC Chinese Poet “This is the first age that’s ever paid much attention to the future, which is a little ironic since we may not have one. ” -Arthur C. Clarke http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/cag/ as long as ecasting/quotes.html Predicting the Future SRES (special report on emissions scenarios) storylines
SRES storylines Economic growth rapid Population peak 2050 Technological growth rapid Capacity building A1F1: fossil intensive A1T: non-fossil energy A1B: Balance Economic shift – services/in as long as mation Population peak 2050 Technology -clean/efficient Global solutions to sustainability/equity Economic development regional – disparity Population continues rising Technological growth – slow, fragmented Self reliance, heterogeneity Economic development intermediate Population continues rising slowly Technological growth – diverse Local in addition to regional solutions to environment/equity No Additional climate initiatives SRES storylines summary A1F1 BAD B1 GOOD From Jo House SRES storylines summary IPCC SRES Radiance calibrated lights obtained from night satellite imagery. Situation in 1995/1996 (bottom panel) in addition to illustrative simulation as long as the SRES A1 scenario’s implied GDP growth as long as 2070 (top panel).
SRES storylines in more detail IPCC TAR SRES: Emissions IPCC TAR synthesis report 2001 Also include emissions scenarios as long as other greenhouse gases in addition to aerosols. How to go from emissions to concentrations IPCC TAR Need to consider the components of the carbon cycle important on these timescales ocean, l in addition to , in addition to human pertubations.
Petit et al, Nature, 399, 429-436, 1999. How to go from emissions to concentrations However, we still dont fully underst in addition to the Vostok CO2 curve!! From Andy Ridgwell CO2 concentration projections IPCC TAR IPCC use relatively simple models to give CO2 concentration scenarios The IPCC Process – summary
Future Climate Predictions – global Future Climate Predictions regional (1) temperature Future Climate Predictions regional (2) Precipitation in addition to cloud cover [stippling at least 80% agree on sign of change]
Future Climate Predictions regional (3) Ocean circulation Summary The atmospheric composition has changed over the last century. GCMs do a relatively good job of the last century (millenium) compared to observations. Climatic change over the last century is predominantly anthropogenic (if the models are correct). Future scenarios of atmospheric composition have been developed. Some modelled consequences of these future changes are robust, others less so.
Ehmsen, Erika Copy Chief
Ehmsen, Erika is from United States and they belong to Sunset Magazine and they are from Menlo Park, United States got related to this Particular Journal. and Ehmsen, Erika deal with the subjects like Culture
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