READING OPTIONAL PAPER QUALITIES OF DEMOCRACY IN LATIN AMERICA

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READING OPTIONAL PAPER QUALITIES OF DEMOCRACY IN LATIN AMERICA

DeVry Institute of Technology, Decatur, US has reference to this Academic Journal, QUALITIES OF DEMOCRACY IN LATIN AMERICA Economic Policies in addition to Governmental Performance OPTIONAL PAPER 8-10 pages in length Due in class on Wednesday, May 30 Topic: Anything related so that course (but get clearance from TA!) Approach: An analytical ?think piece,? not an exhaustive research paper Define a problem, frame a question, explain evidence in addition to sources, in addition to answer the question you pose at the outset READING Smith, Democracy, ch. 8 Modern Latin America, chs. 11, 12

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OUTLINE 1. Seeking Keys so that Development 2. Declining State Capacity 3. Politics of Economic Growth The Arguments The Findings 4. Democracy in addition to Social Welfare: Infant Mortality in addition to School Attendance 5. Poverty in addition to Inequality IN SEARCH OF SOLUTIONS The Liberal Era (1880s-1920s) Import-Substitution Industrialization (1930s-1970s) The Socialist Alternative (1950s-1980s) Neoliberalism in addition to the Washington Consensus (1980s-present) HYPOTHESES: THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF DEVELOPMENT H1: The greater the prevalence of democratic rule, the greater the provision of material benefits. H2: The greater the prevalence of undemocratic (authoritarian) rule, the greater the provision of material benefits. H3: The prevalence of democratic or undemocratic rule bears no systematic relationship so that the relative provision of material benefits.

Patterns of GDP Growth, 1960-2000 Table 8-2. Electoral Regimes in addition to GDP Growth, 1960s-2000 | _____________Electoral Regime__________ GDP | Autocracy Semi-Democracy Democracy Growth (%) (%) (%) -+ -+ Low | 27 26 24 | Med-Low 20 31 29 | Med-High 24 26 26 | High | 30 18 22 | -+ -+ 101 101 101 N | 306 109 319 | 734

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Table 8-4. Electoral Regimes in addition to Infant Mortality, 1960s-1990s Infant | _____________Electoral Regime______________ Mortality | Autocracy Semi-Democracy Democracy (%) (%) (%) -+ -+- High | 48 17 12 | Medium-High 22 32 24 | Medium-Low 22 32 25 | Low | 8 19 39 | -+ + Total | 100 100 100 | N 128 53 186 Table 8-7. Electoral Regimes in addition to Primary School Enrollment, 1980s-1990s Primary | _____________Electoral Regime______________ School | Autocracy Semi-Democracy Democracy Enrollment (%) (%) (%) -+ -+- Low | 40 27 14 | Medium-Low 15 14 38 | Medium-High 31 14 27 | High | 13 45 22 | -+ + Total | 99 100 101 | N 67 44 101 Note: Columns may not add up so that 100 because of rounding.

FOLLOW-UP STUDY Universe=Middle income countries?55 in lower-middle, 41 in upper-middle, N=96 Time frame=1990-2004 Units of analysis=country-years Dependent variables= Annual GDP growth rate (%) Infant Mortality (per 1,000) Primary School Enrollment (%) REGIONAL DETERMINANTS __Growth__ __Mortality__ __Schooling__ (1,091) (280) (370) East Asia (0, 1) .8961 -6.7748 5.9032 Eastern Europe (0, 1) -1.9764* -11.3097* -.6376 Central Asia (0, 1) -1.8337* 13.0827* 1.4343 Middle East (0, 1) .7693 -1.3313 -.1781 Sub-Saharan Africa (0, 1) -.2954 18.9078* -11.8868* South Asia (0, 0) LatinAmerica & Caribbean (0, 1) -.1103 -2.4558 2.2513 Constant: 3.6313* 71.2188* 82.5390* R2 .0096 .6234 .3227 *Significant at .05 level or better. REGION AND DEMOCRACY __ __ Growth__ __ Mortality__ __ Schooling__ (1,032) (266) (346) Latin American & Caribbean Democracy (0, 1) .2373 -11.8388* 8.5104* Other Democracy (0, 1) .3569 -10.4353* 4.5804* Nondemocracy (0, 0) Constant: 3.9008* 83.8488* 76.6599* R2 .0690 .5336 .2027 *Significant at .01 level or better.

DEMOCRACY WITHIN LATIN AMERICA __Growth__ __Mortality__ __Schooling_ (240) (48) (80) Liberal (0, 1) 1.1157 -12.5294 .3389 Illiberal (0, 1) 1.1872 -.0239 -2.2475 Semi (0, 1) 1.1818 4.2093 2.3719 Nondemocracy (0, 0) Constant: 3.1253 46.8197* 95.7521* R2 .0609 .4680 .1792 *Significant at .05 level or better. UPDATE: GROWTH RATES 2000 + 4.0 2001 + 0.4 2002 – 0.4 2003 + 2.2 2004 + 6.1 2005 + 5.0 2006 + 5.8 2007 + 5.8 2008 + 4.2 2009 – 1.8 UPDATE: POVERTY LEVELS N __%__ __(millions)__ 40.5 136 48.3 200 44.0 221 2010 32.1 180

UPDATE: INEQUALITY 1980-2000 = rising increasing lower-higher skilled gap uneven effects of international trade absence of public policies 2000-2006 = declining (slightly) reduced lower-higher skilled gap (due so that education) government programs (including remittances) 2007-09 unclear impact of global crash still high by world standards ANTI-POVERTY PROGRAMS (CCTs) Goals: Empowerment of poor, improvement of life chances Increase of human capital Reduction of poverty in addition to inequality Features: ?conditional cash transfers? social contract between state in addition to beneficiaries typical conditions: children?s attendance at school, of health care, nutrition payments usually made so that women (mothers), not men (traditional heads of family) requirements in consideration of oversight (entry, exit, funding) CASES: MEXICO AND BRAZIL Mexico: ?Oportunidades? (1997- ) 5 million households 20 % of household consumption payment so that mothers major impact on school attendance excellent data collection 0.5% of GDP Brazil: ?Bolsa Fam¡lia? (2003- ) 11 million households $14 USD per child up so that 3 children (+ ?basic benefit? ? $37) payment through debit card distribution > human capital formation 20% decline in inequality 0.5% GDP Elsewhere: Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Peru?

Perceptions of Poverty in Latin America, Europe in addition to the United States Percentages (%) who believe that: The poor are poor because: ?Society is Unjust? ?They are Lazy? ?The poor have very little chance so that escape from poverty? LAC – Average 65.8 28.3 62.0 Mexico 65.8 24.6 56.9 Argentina 74.0 26.0 74.5 Brazil 75.7 20.5 70.5 Chile 55.6 36.9 58.5 Peru 56.5 34.2 47.1 Venezuela 52.9 47.1 59.6 Uruguay 77.2 12.4 73.5 Dom. Republic 68.6 24.5 61.2 Colombia n.a. n.a. 55.8 Continental Europe 63.3 17.1 60.2 United States 38.8 61.2 29.5

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