Review of 2/28 Severe Weather Review of 2/28 Severe Weather Review of 2/28 Severe Weather Review of 2/28 Severe Weather Surface Weather Analysis

Review of 2/28 Severe Weather Review of 2/28 Severe Weather Review of 2/28 Severe Weather Review of 2/28 Severe Weather Surface Weather Analysis www.phwiki.com

Review of 2/28 Severe Weather Review of 2/28 Severe Weather Review of 2/28 Severe Weather Review of 2/28 Severe Weather Surface Weather Analysis

Staten, Aimee, Managing Editor has reference to this Academic Journal, PHwiki organized this Journal Hydrometeorological Forecasting Lab: Predicting Heavy Rainfall, Flash Flooding, & Stormwater Runoff Meteorologist Anthony Phillips wx4sno@bsu.edu www.wx4sno.com Recognize & underst in addition to basic synoptic features on weather maps Become acquainted with links to weather as long as ecasting charts in addition to graphics on the internet Determine when in addition to where heavy rainfall will occur & if flooding could be a concern Learn how to calculate stormwater runoff problemsReview of 2/28 Severe Weather0.56” of rain fell in Muncie on Friday, 25-Feb-2011Rain changed to snow which accumulated to 5.8” by late FridayStrong to severe storms developed across central Indiana late on Sunday, 27-Feb-2011Thunderstorm “training” effect produced torrential rainfallCombined with already saturated ground in addition to left-over snow pack, flash flooding occurred quickly across much of IndianaReview of 2/28 Severe Weather

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Review of 2/28 Severe WeatherReview of 2/28 Severe WeatherSurface Weather Analysishttp://aviationweather.gov/adds/progs/nav.phpcurrent=0

Surface Weather AnalysisHigh pressure systems: HAssociated with sinking air & clear skiesNo precipitationLow pressure systems: LAssociated with rising air, cloudy conditionsUsually produce precipitationSurface Weather AnalysisUpper Air Chartshttp://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/Time of day will determine which UTC time to chooseIf it’s currently morning: use 00 UTC column & select “fine”If it’s currently evening: use 12 UTC column & select “fine”

Upper Air ChartsDifferent graphics/maps are across top rowForecast days into the future are listed on the leftHours as long as ecasted into the future are listed as linksUpper Air: 850 mb ChartTemperature at this height is represented by solid colored lines Blue: < 0° C (frozen) Purple: 0° C (rain/snow line) Red: > 0° C (liquid) Upper Air: 300 mb ChartUsed to locate the Jetstream, ridges, in addition to troughsWinds are plotted in addition to color-codedTroughs are associated with cloudy weather with potential as long as storms along right side of the JetstreamRidges are associated with high pressure, clearing skies in addition to no storms

Upper Air: 300 mb ChartRidgeTroughHydrometeorological Prediction Centerhttp://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ The main source as long as in as long as mation about upcoming flood conditionsHydrometeorological Prediction CenterHPC Products:QPF: Quantitative Precipitation Forecast(s)Provides a as long as ecasted amount of precipitation over a certain amount of timeUseful as long as locating areas of heaviest precipitation 1, 2, 3+ days in the futureExcessive Rainfall:If extreme rainfall is expect, this product outlines areas that are at riskLevels of risk are outlined as follows:PQPF: Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecast(s)% probability of certain amount of rainfall occurring over a particular areaFlood OutlooksWinter Weather Outlooks, Heat Indicies, Air Quality

USGS Stream Gage Networkhttp://water.weather.gov/ahps/ USGS Stream Gage NetworkAllows as long as monitoring of stream in addition to river stagesCurrent, past, in addition to sometimes as long as ecasted stagesAlso provides flow in cubic feet per second (ft3 sec-1) Location in as long as mation provided about the gageLatitude/LongitudeGoogle mapPhotographsTrouble spotsWSR-88 Doppler Radarhttp://radar.weather.gov/WSR-88D: Weather Surveillance Radar 1988 DopplerMore simply, Doppler radar or just radar100+ Doppler sitesProvides a look at current precipitation, as well as previous amountsAlso can measure wind speed by the Doppler effect (hence the name)

WSR-88 Doppler RadarRadar emit microwave energy in pulses as it spins horizontallyWhen a pulse strikes an object (rain, hail, birds, etc), energy is reflected back to the actual radar siteThe location of this strike is plotted on a 360° circleWSR-88 Doppler RadarAfter the radar makes one horizontal revolution, it points or tilts slightly higher up in addition to makes another revolution at this higher angleIt repeats this several times to get a 3-D scan of the atmosphereHow large or dense the reflected energy determines the value measured in dBZ.WSR-88 Doppler RadarAdvanced, hi-resolution radar images are availableMust have a radar viewing program such as GRLevel3Available as long as a one-time fee at: http://www.grlevelx.com/ I currently host hi-resolution radar images as long as the Muncie area at: http://www.wx4sno.com/radar/WSR-88D’s are being replaced with Dual-Pole radar

Flash Flood Guidance (FFG)http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/ffg.php FFG: Flash Flood GuidanceProvides an estimate of how much precipitation (in inches) within a certain amount of time is needed to cause flash flooding over a particular areaCounty-by-county coverageMostly available in 1-Hr, 3-Hr, 6-Hr, 12-Hr, 24-Hr time framesGraphical or tabular as long as matsFlash Flood Guidance (FFG)An example: What state does this FFG map coverFor what time-frame is this FFGLocate the Great Smoky MountainsAlong the middle of the Tennessee/North Carolina borderWhat is the FFG value as long as the Smokies on the Tennessee-sideFlash Flood Guidance (FFG)An example, cont:From the previous slide, we determined the 6-hr FFG value to be: 3.0”To the right is a radar image showing rainfall as long as 6-hours across the same region.According to this image, about how much rainfall has occurred near the white line

Staten, Aimee Eastern Arizona Courier Managing Editor www.phwiki.com

Flash Flood Guidance (FFG)Follow these rules when comparing FFG to either radar values or to QPF:If FFG value > QPF/radar value = no flash floodingIf FFG value < QPF/radar value = flash floodingSo, to recap:If the FFG map indicates a larger number than what is shown on radar or is as long as ecasted on QPF maps, then flooding is unlikelyIf the FFG map indicates a smaller value compared to what’s shown on radar or as long as ecasted on QPF maps, then expect some sort of flooding/flash floodingStormwater Volume CalculationsExample: Assume the HPC is as long as ecasting 0.50” of rainfall over the Muncie area on Day 1. We later observe this to be true by looking at Doppler radar total rainfall as long as the 24 hour period on Day 1. Knowing that 0.50” of rain fell over one township in Muncie, how many gallons of runoff will there be, assuming that the entire township is an impermeable surface Stormwater Volume CalculationsExample, cont:Step 1: Determine how many gallons are in 1 square mileConvert your units to match one another: Stormwater Volume CalculationsExample, cont:Now that everything is in the same units of feet, find the cubic volume:Now convert this cubic feet value to gallons (recall the conversion factor: 1 ft3 = 7.48 gal)Stormwater Volume CalculationsExample, cont:So we know that this value of 8.75 million gallons is equal to the amount over 1 square mileStep 2: Determine how many gallons of rain there are over 36 square miles (1 township)Stormwater Volume CalculationsExample, cont:From this example above, we can see that 0.50” of rain over one township in Muncie produces 315 million gallons of runoff. Stormwater Volume CalculationsIn-class Exercise:Weather observation equipment at Muncie recorded 2.68” of rainfall on Monday, February 28, 2011. How many gallons of runoff occurred as a result of this rainfall across Center Township in Delaware County Assume 70% of the township is impermeable.Comments/QuestionsIf you find yourself in need of help, please drop by my office in room CL 427 within the Geography Department, Cooper Science Complex (just down from West Quadrangle). My office hours:I will not be on campus during Spring breakYou can also email me at: wx4sno@bsu.edu

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