The Double Dividend of Methane Control Arlene M. Fiore IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

The Double Dividend of Methane Control Arlene M. Fiore IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria www.phwiki.com

The Double Dividend of Methane Control Arlene M. Fiore IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Harris, Jeff, General Manager has reference to this Academic Journal, PHwiki organized this Journal The Double Dividend of Methane Control Arlene M. Fiore IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria January 28, 2003 ANIMALS 90 LANDFILLS 50 GAS 60 COAL 40 RICE 85 TERMITES 25 WETLANDS 180 BIOMASS BURNING 20 (Fiore et al., GRL, October 2002) GLOBAL METHANE SOURCES (Tg CH4 yr-1) IPCC [2001] Projections of Future CH4 Emissions (Tg CH4) to 2050 Year 600 800 700 Scenarios A1B A1T A1F1 A2 B1 B2 IS92a 900 Variations of CH4 Concentration (ppbv) Over the Past 1000 years [Etheridge et al., 1998] Year 2000 1000 800 1200 1600 1400 1000 1500 2000 2020 2040 Atmospheric CH4: Past Trends, Future Predictions CH4 itself is an important greenhouse gas, in addition to links climate with air pollution via its influence on tropospheric ozone NOx NMVOCs NOx NMVOCs CONTINENT 2 OCEAN O3 Boundary layer (0-2.5 km) Free Troposphere CONTINENT 1 OH HO2 VOC, CH4, CO NO NO2 hn O3 O3 Global Background O3 Direct Intercontinental Transport greenhouse gas air pollution (smog) air pollution (smog)

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Summer 1995 1- 5 p.m. Observations at Harvard Forest, Massachusetts Data from Munger et al., [1996, 1998] r2 = 0.74 U.S. Ozone St in addition to ard Range of observed background (Index of Aged Pollution) Ozone (ppbv) NOy-NOx (ppbv) Intercept 30 ppb background (clean air) Mean Afternoon O3 Background (ppbv) in GEOS-CHEM Model, Summer 1995 Background is tagged as ozone produced outside the N. American boundary layer (surface-700 hPa) What is background O3 over the United States Fiore et al., JGR, August, 2002. APPROACH: Sensitivity simulations in GEOS-CHEM Model [Bey et al.,2001] (uses assimilated meteorology; 20 s; 4ºx5º or 2ºx2.5º horiz. resn.) Perturbations to total emissions when anthropogenic are halved What is the anthrop. contribution to global emissions NOx ~ 65% 33% CO ~ 50% 25% VOCs ~ 12% 6% CH4 ~ 60% 30% 1. Reduce various combinations of anthrop. emissions by 50% globally relative to 1995 base year CH4 fixed at steady-state global uni as long as m concentration (1700 ppbv as long as 1995) 1000 ppbv CH4) ( QUESTION: Can we simultaneously mitigate air pollution in addition to greenhouse warming by reducing CH4 emissions METHOD (continued): NOx CO CH4 VOCs Percent change in anthrop. emis. from 1995 base case to 2030 simulations: GLOBAL increase USA decrease A1 2030 2. Implement IPCC A1/B1 future emission scenarios as long as 2030 B1 2030

Change in radiative as long as cing (W m-2) from O3 in addition to CH4 relative to 1995 base case calculated from changes in global CH4 concentrations [IPCC, 2001] in addition to changes in the mean tropospheric O3 column [Mickley et al., 1999] NOx OH CH4 50% anthr. NOx 2030 A1 50% anthr. CH4 50% anthr. NMVOC 2030 B1 Change in summer afternoon O3 in surface air over the U.S. Mean O3 Background O3 50% anthr. NMVOC 50% anthr. CH4 50% anthr. NOx 2030 A1 produced outside the North American boundary layer (surface-700 hPa) Change in O3 (ppbv) Relative to 1995 base year (mean 51 ppbv, background 23 ppbv) Degradation of U.S. air quality from rise in global emissions despite domestic reductions 2030 B1 Impacts of Emissions Perturbations on U.S. Air Quality 1995 (base) 50% anthr. VOC 50% anthr. CH4 50% anthr. NOx 2030 A1 Increase in U.S. pollution events despite domestic decline in anthrop. emissions Number of summer grid-square days with O3 > 80 ppbv 2030 B1

Rising emissions from developing countries lengthen the O3 pollution season in the United States 2030 A1 1995 Base Case Double dividend of methane emissions reductions: lower global O3 background in addition to improve air quality everywhere CH4 NOx NMVOCs O3 Chemical loss Deposition CONTINENT 2 OCEAN O3 O3 NOx emissions local impact; little effect on climate Boundary layer (0-2.5 km) Free Troposphere CH4 emissions global impact: Lower background O3 Negative radiative as long as cing Intercontinental transport, global O3 background increases in 2030 A1 simulation CONTINENT 1

Harris, Jeff KQSR-FM General Manager www.phwiki.com

Harris, Jeff General Manager

Harris, Jeff is from United States and they belong to KQSR-FM and they are from  Yuma, United States got related to this Particular Journal. and Harris, Jeff deal with the subjects like Music

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