The Modeling of Climate in addition to Climate Change; can we trust model predictions Outline The greenhouse effect The climate system

The Modeling of Climate in addition to Climate Change; can we trust model predictions Outline The greenhouse effect The climate system www.phwiki.com

The Modeling of Climate in addition to Climate Change; can we trust model predictions Outline The greenhouse effect The climate system

Carey, Liz, Managing Editor has reference to this Academic Journal, PHwiki organized this Journal The Modeling of Climate in addition to Climate Change; can we trust model predictions University of Cali as long as nia, Irvine 21 February 2003 by John Houghton Outline Introduction Cloud Radiation Feedback Ocean Interactions The Carbon Cycle The Climate of the 20th Century Climate Projections as long as the 21st Century Regional Climate Modeling Patterns of Climate Response The greenhouse effect Long-wave radiation 236 Wm-2 Equivalent T = 255 K (-18ºC) 390 Wm-2 T = 255 K (-15ºC) 236 Wm-2 Solar radiation

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Spectra of outgoing radiation from Earth observed by IRIS on Nimbus 3 The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect Solar (S) in addition to longwave (L) radiation in Wm-2 at the top of the atmosphere S L 236 236 T = -18°C S L 236 232 CO2 x 2 S L 236 236 CO2 x 2 S L 236 236 CO2 x 2 + Feedbacks H2O (+60%) Ice/Albedo (+20%) Cloud Ocean TS = 15°C TS = 15°C DTS ~ 1.2K DTS ~ 2.5K

The climate system The Development of Climate models, Past, Present in addition to Future Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere L in addition to surface L in addition to surface L in addition to surface L in addition to surface L in addition to surface Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice Sulphate aerosol Sulphate aerosol Sulphate aerosol Non-sulphate aerosol Non-sulphate aerosol Carbon cycle Carbon cycle Atmospheric chemistry Ocean & sea-ice model Sulphur cycle model Non-sulphate aerosols Carbon cycle model L in addition to carbon cycle model Ocean carbon cycle model Atmospheric chemistry Atmospheric chemistry Off-line model development Strengthening colours denote improvements in models Mid 1970s Mid 1980s Early 1990s Late 1990s Present day Early 2000s Predicting impacts of climate change Emissions Concentrations CO2, methane, sulphates, etc. Global climate change Temperature, rainfall, sea level, etc. Regional detail Mountain effects, isl in addition to s, extreme weather, etc. Impacts Flooding, food supply, etc. Scenarios from population, energy, economics models Carbon cycle in addition to chemistry models Coupled global climate models Regional climate models Impacts models The main stages required to provide climate change scenarios as long as assessing the impacts of climate change. Hadley Centre – PRECIS brochure

Coupled atmosphere / ocean climate model Radiation Atmosphere: Density Motion Water Heat Exchange of: Momentum Water Ocean: Density (inc. Salinity) Motion Sea Ice L in addition to 19 levels in atmosphere 20 levels in ocean 2.5 lat 3.75 long 1.25 1.25 THE HADLEY CENTRE THIRD COUPLED MODEL – HadCM3 30km -5km

Physical Feedbacks Water vapour Ice albedo Clouds Oceans Ice sheets Cloud Radiation Feedback

Cloud radiation feedback Global average change in T /C Model Estimates of Cloud Radiative Forcing with CO2 Doubling

Effect of cloud feedback as long as mulation on climate prediction Feedback scheme Global Av Temp change,C as long as doubled CO2 RH 5.3 CW 2.8 CWRP 1.9 after Senior & Mitchell, Hadley Centre Net cloud as long as cing: January to July Hadley Centre SHIP TRACKS UNDER CLOUD Washington state

Ocean Interactions IPCC Synthesis Report Strength of the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic. Hadley Centre

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IPCC Third Assessment Report Modelled transport of water in Atlantic conveyor belt Projected changes in annual temperatures as long as the 2050s The projected change in annual temperatures as long as the 2050s compared with the present day, when the climate model is driven with an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations equivalent to about 1% increase per year in CO2 The MetOffice. Hadley Center as long as Climate Prediction in addition to Research. BW 11 Changes in surface air temperature, relative to the present day, 20 years after the hypothetical collapse of the thermohaline circulation. Hadley Centre

Surface Temperature Combined effect of THC collapse (2049-2059) in addition to global warming Cooling over UK: 1-3°C The Carbon Cycle

Hadley Centre – PRECIS brochure Predicted changes in summer surface air temperatures between the present day in addition to the end of the 21st century. Left, from the global model. Right, from the regional model. Hadley Centre – PRECIS brochure Predicted changes in monsoon precipitation over India, between the present day in addition to the middle of the 21st century from the GCM (left) in addition to the RCM (right). Is the Climate Chaotic

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