Uncertainty, Lags, in addition to Nonlinearity: Challenges to Governance in a Turbulent World UNCERTAINTY LAGS NONLINEARITY OPENNESS
Held, Eliot, Managing Editor has reference to this Academic Journal, PHwiki organized this Journal Thomas Homer-Dixon CIGI Chair of Global Systems Balsillie School of International Affairs Waterloo,Canada May 7 2009 Uncertainty, Lags, in addition to Nonlinearity: Challenges to Governance in a Turbulent World UNCERTAINTY LAGS NONLINEARITY OPENNESS UNCERTAINTY LAGS NONLINEARITY OPENNESS
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UNCERTAINTY LAGS NONLINEARITY OPENNESS
We need to shift from seeing the world as composed mainly of MACHINES to seeing it as composed mainly of COMPLEX SYSTEMS Whereas MACHINES can be taken apart, analyzed, in addition to fully understood (they are no more than the sum of their parts) exhibit normal or equilibrium patterns of behavior show proportionality of cause in addition to effect, in addition to can be managed because their behavior predictable
COMPLEX SYTEMS are more than the sum of their parts (they have emergent properties) can flip from one pattern of behavior to another (they have multiple equilibriums) show disproportionality of cause in addition to effect (their behavior is often nonlinear, because of feedbacks in addition to synergies), in addition to cannot be easily managed because their behavior is often unpredictable. Were moving from a world of RISK to a world of UNCERTAINTY (unknown unknowns) So, we must move from management to Complex Adaptation
Battisti in addition to Naylor, Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science (9 January 2009): 240-44 Battisti in addition to Naylor, Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science (9 January 2009): 240-44
IPCC 2007 UNCERTAINTY LAGS NONLINEARITY OPENNESS
LAGS Between emission in addition to climate response Between cuts to emissions in addition to reduction of warming Between policy decision to change energy infrastructure in addition to completion of this change [We show] that to hold climate constant at a given global temperature requires near zero future carbon emissions . As a consequence, any future anthropogenic emissions will commit the climate system to warming that is essentially irreversible on centennial timescales. Matthews, H. D., in addition to K. Caldeira (2008), Stabilizing climate requires near-zero emissions, Geophys. Res. Lett. [The] climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible as long as 1,000 years after emissions stop. Following cessation of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases radiative as long as cing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so that atmospheric temperatures do not drop significantly as long as at least 1,000 years. Among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from current levels near 385 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to a peak of 450600 ppmv over the coming century are dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions comparable to those of the dust bowl era in addition to inexorable sea level rise. Solomon et al, Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions, PNAS (February 10 2009).
Hansen, Atmos. Chem. Phys. 7 (2007): 2287-2312. UNCERTAINTY LAGS NONLINEARITY OPENNESS Years be as long as e Present Ice Accumulation Rate (meters per year)
More rapid warming at poles One reason: Ice-albedo feedback Atmospheric warming Lower reflectivity of ocean surface Melting of ice Increased ocean absorption of suns energy radiative positive feedback, fast 2008 4.52 mK2
Up to 30 percent decrease in the efficiency of the Southern Ocean sink over the last 20 years Strengthening of the winds around Antarctica increases exposure of carbon-rich deep waters Strengthening of the winds due to global warming in addition to the ozone hole Declining efficiency of the ocean sink Le Quéré et al. 2007, Science Atmospheric warming Rotting of organic matter Melting of permafrost Release of CH4 in addition to CO2 carbon cycle positive feedback, potentially fast
Held, Eliot Managing Editor
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